Another game that caught my eye...

Just caught this I know it looks kinda ugly but I think there is alot of value in Iowa -17 against Illinois. Iowa has played two very tough games against motivated defenses. ISU where Tate missed over half the game and a motivated OSU team that was seeking revenge for the pasting Iowa gave them last year. Iowa is something like 22-4 ATS (I'll double check this) at home coming off of a loss. Illinois is very soft against the run giving up 8 yards a carry to Cal and 6.5 ypc to Rutgers. We all saw the debacle against MSU last week where the Spartans hung 61 and over 700 yards on the Illni. You also have another Ferentz/Zook matchup, I think it was the Outback bowl a couple years ago where the Zook led Gators got pasted by Ferentz's Hawkeyes, despite having a much more talented team. Translation? Ferentz is a better coach, has a better team, is at home against a weak opponent and his kids have something to prove. I think Iowa wins this game by 24 if not much more.

[Avatar of Wine]

[ QUOTE ]
Just caught this I know it looks kinda ugly but I think there is alot of value in Iowa -17 against Illinois. Iowa has played two very tough games against motivated defenses. ISU where Tate missed over half the game and a motivated OSU team that was seeking revenge for the pasting Iowa gave them last year. Iowa is something like 22-4 ATS (I'll double check this) at home coming off of a loss. Illinois is very soft against the run giving up 8 yards a carry to Cal and 6.5 ypc to Rutgers. We all saw the debacle against MSU last week where the Spartans hung 61 and over 700 yards on the Illni. You also have another Ferentz/Zook matchup, I think it was the Outback bowl a couple years ago where the Zook led Gators got pasted by Ferentz's Hawkeyes, despite having a much more talented team. Translation? Ferentz is a better coach, has a better team, is at home against a weak opponent and his kids have something to prove. I think Iowa wins this game by 24 if not much more.

[/ QUOTE ]

As someone who watches Iowa every week (NE end zone represent), I can tell you that you may be on the right track.

Iowa's offense has been inexplicably bad - they're ostensibly better at every offensive position this season, only losing their eldest o-lineman (who sort of sucked anyway). The line has looked TERRIBLE - but against a weak pass rush, they might be able to get back on track this week.

Plus, it's Homecoming in Kinnick. Iowa is exceptional at home - their home/road splits are absurd for a solid program.

A lot of lines think it'll be a shootout - o/u is getting into the low 50's some places.

Keep an eye on the line though - BoS.com has it up to -18 iowa already . . .

[MyTurn2Raise]

It's a weekly ritual for me to post my feeling in Champaign pick. Since, I'm around some players and constantly up on the news and Illini forums.

This week, I agree. Take Iowa -17 V Illini

1) It's been a crash back to reality for the Illini defense. As soon as the offense stopped eating up 20 inutes of possession time in a half (aka Cal halftime), the defense had to pull it's one weight and was exposed.
See Rutgers first half, Cal 2nd half, Michigan State. 1/2 the time, they are swiss cheese. The Illini D is currently giving up 467 ypg, even more than last year, and 38 pts per game (the slight inflation of MSU's output is tempered by the fact they played SJSU). The Illini have yet to hold a major conference foe to less than 30 points or 5 scores.

OK, OK, but Iowa's offense has layed two stinkers you say?
One was against Ohio St, which has the best D in the nation IMO. The other was against Iowa St. after QB Tate went down injured. Expect the output to be more like it was against N Iowa and Ball St. The Illini are not better on D than these teams. Moreover, the young guys on Iowa's lines, both O and D, are getting more experienced. It's time for their talent to begin to show. Look for Iowa to get 37+-6 points against the Illini.

2) The Illini offense will put up its usual showing. They will move the ball, score some points, but it will not be near enough. Iowa is giving up only 341 ypg against a somewhat weak schedule thus far. Illinois is going for 385 ypg. The Illini scored 33 against Rutgers (27 in regulation), 40 v SJSU, 20 @ Cal, and 14 v MSU. That is the same MSU defense ND shredded. Rutgers didn't know quite what to expect from Illinois. Cal was 17 early points and 3 when the going got tough. Well, it's the bigten on the road against a proud team that needs a win. The going will be tough. Look for 17+-4 from the Illini.

3) Intangibles point Iowa's way. Illinois, after looking tough v Rutgers, packed it in when things went bad v Cal and MSU. They reverted to the same old, same old. If Iowa gets rolling at home, expect the Illini to call it an early quit again. The no huddle offense tends to do less well on the road too.

Final score: Iowa 37, Illinois 17
not too much value here, but enough to bet on the Hawkeyes.

As an Illini fan, all I can say is, "When does basketball start?."

btw, I'm 2-2 on my feeling in Champaign picks
6-2 ytd on my forum recommended NCAA picks