How many outs and worth a cold call?

Rudi · #1 09-29-2005, 11:34 AM

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Hero calls, SB raises, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB bets, BB raises, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero...

I struggled with this decision when the table turned into a LAG-fest. MP2 cracked SB's AA the previous hand and the hand before that he had smoked BB's AKs with garbage by hitting pair both hold cards. They were both fuming and likely tilting.

At the moment, that doesn't factor into my decision on whether to cold call. I'm counting 1.5 for a back door straight, 2 for the other 10's in the deck and maybe 1 for the Queen because a Queen will help those drawing to a straight. So I have roughly 4 outs, needing 1:11. I'm getting almost 1:10. Are implied odds enough on later streets to make up the difference if I call?

jrz1972 · #2 09-29-2005, 11:41 AM

Yeah, this is worth a call. You know somebody will bet into you if you hit on the turn, so you're getting a lot in the way of implied odds here.

bozlax · #3 09-29-2005, 12:02 PM

Ugh. I don't like it. (I actually don't like the preflop call, with a tilting player on your left.)

Based on OP's description of the table and SB, I think you're damned lucky if you get 10:1 on this call (that's if SB just calls the raise). I think it's more likely that SB re-raises and you're getting closer to 8:1 (you'll have to put in three with 27 bets in going to the turn). It stays about 8:1 if BB caps, too. That also assumes that MP2 and CO don't chicken out.

Then you're headed to the turn with a pot of somewhere between 14 and 18 big bets (too big to get away from), you've got second pair, poor kicker, you've no idea what anybody else is holding (is BB playing off the same read you have?), and you're probably going to have to put in 2-3 bets on the turn to see the river. Again, ugh.

With the read you have on the table, I think you have to pick a better spot preflop, and definitely get away from this on the flop.

Fantam · #4 09-29-2005, 12:30 PM

I think that you may possibly be over discounting your Q outs, but slightly overvaluing your backdoor straight draw.

Anyway, I think that a call to see if you improve on the turn is worthwhile in this big pot.

There is a possibility that the flop will still be raised again behind you, and maybe even capped, but I would still call. If SB and BB are becoming laggy, then you will most likely make additional bets from them on the later streets if you improve.

Rudi · #5 09-29-2005, 01:11 PM

Thanks for all the input. It's difficult, for me anyway, to make this kind of analysis when the 15-second-to-act chime is ringing on the speaker. I'm glad to see it wasn't a clear cut decision of calling or folding and an arguement could be made for either one.

In this instance, I folded precisely for the reason bozlax mention with SB re-raising and the possibility of a cap (it wasn't).

In the end, MP2 beat SB's AKo by spiking two-pair on the flop with 10-8 of diamonds. BB mucked K9o. SB had a few choice words for MP2 and soon tilted away his last $$ on the next hand and left.