Making the right call when you know it's wrong

[bweiser8311962]

9 people left in a speed tournament

Blinds are 600/1200

UTG goes all-in for 2300ish
Folded around to the SB who has slightly less than 30K and is the big stack. Jerk folds.

I am the BB with about 3500. I look at 2/4o. I am getting about 4:1 to call and with two overs I am a 2:1 dog. So I complain that I wish the SB/big stack had made the crying call, before I grudgingly make the call.

Only the top six cashed.

I was correct and UTG had A/rag unsuited.

I lost the hand and proceeded to finish 9th, mainly because in the next hand when I should have folded my way into the money, I pushed with 6c/10c from the small blind when it was folded to me and the BB had QQ.

So I was getting the right odds to make that call out of the BB and made the right call, but I still believe it was wrong. Too many of my chips and on the bubble.

Thoughts?

[gobboboy]

I still think you should go for it. Odds are good for a reason, and if you take him out you're likely finishing better than 8th because of your increased stack. You may have actual fold equity when you start stealing, and unless there's a huge money gap I have to advocate a call.

[Shorty35]

[ QUOTE ]
I still think you should go for it. Odds are good for a reason, and if you take him out you're likely finishing better than 8th because of your increased stack. You may have actual fold equity when you start stealing, and unless there's a huge money gap I have to advocate a call.

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This is good advice (aasuming standard payouts). Making calls like this is painful and profitable.

[DyessMan89]

4-1 odds on your money, dont expect you to be worse than 2-1, Im making this call. Also, you currently have no FE, and very slight chance of finishing much higher, winning this pot will improve both those aspects.

[odiggity]

no u dont make this call. 2/3 2/4. these cards r horrible and u can get away from the odds with these hands. u could of folded. folded the next crap(though u probably would of tried a steal with the 6/10 suited and gone broke anyway) and looked for a better spot.

[nath]

In the future don't let yourself get this short. Your M is less than 2 BEFORE posting-- you needed to make *at least* one move that orbit before your blind came up so
-you'd still have a little something after the blinds passed (if you folded them)
-you'd have enough chips to have folding equity and be in a spot where a double-up gives you a much more reasonable stack.

I would make this call too after some thinking but I would do this call without thinking if I was the SB here. He is getting 2.4-1 in odds and it's not a big deal if he lose since well, he will still have around 28-29k...

Anyway I'd call this too. If I win, that's nice since I get some new chips to play around with. If I lose, well I was in bad shape before and tried to get some while I had the odds so atleast I did what I could.

I once called with 5-4os in this exact situation and the raiser showed me 5-3os bursting out in a "OMG you have better cards than me". This was live so it was pretty damn funny [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

made the same play earlier today in a tourney, guy had same high card, lower kicker... I felt proud.

[nath]

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no u dont make this call. 2/3 2/4. these cards r horrible and u can get away from the odds with these hands.

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I don't understand your last statement. The whole point of the odds is that they aren't subjective. If you're getting 4 to 1 odds to call and you are overall about a 2.5 to 1 dog, you are taking a favorable gamble.

[ QUOTE ]
folded the next crap(though u probably would of tried a steal with the 6/10 suited and gone broke anyway) and looked for a better spot.

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He doesn't have enough chips to do that. The blinds eat up half his stack, and any subsequent move (with only 1700 chips at 600/1200) will surely be called by at least one player.

[DonHansen]

My two cents:

1. You had an M-value of 2.6 before this hand with an effective M of 2.3 if the table was 9-handed. (M is your stack divided on BB+SB, on this occation 4700/1800=2.6. The M-value tells how many rounds you can survive before the blinds gobble up your stack.) You should've pushed with any two decent cards long before your M got this low with the hopes of doubling up.

2. The call is technically correct. I still would'nt call with 4/2o though. Even if you hit your six-outer your're most likely behind, you'll probably need two pair or trips to pull it off with rags like that.

Push earlier next time.


D.