The Miracle Flop

[AngelicPenguin]

When should you call with any two cards hoping to catch the miracle flop (two pair or better.) I'm not positive what the odds are, but it's 2% to flop two pair, 1.35% to flop trips, and very teeny % for full houses or quads. I know you can't just add those up, so I was figuring maybe 4% total. This is about 1 in 25 or so. Cut this in half for implied odds? Maybe 1 in 13 if you are closing the action?

Just curious...not like my games get those odds all the time [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[billymonk]

I consider myself too loose right now, but I don't think I'd ever call with any two cards hoping to hit a miracle flop regardless of the odds I'm given.

[MrWookie47]

[ QUOTE ]
I consider myself too loose right now, but I don't think I'd ever call with any two cards hoping to hit a miracle flop regardless of the odds I'm given.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I think you're making a mistake. Hell, even LEE JONES is completing with any two cards in a 2/3 blind structure. In that case, with even one limper, you're getting 8:1 but with ridiculously good implied odds because of how small the ":1" is. You stand to make up many, many thirds of a small bet postflop on that miracle.

In a 1/2 blind structure, "any two will do" starts looking decent at about 5 limpers if I only have to put in 1/2 a SB. On the button, I think I want a full 7 limpers before I consider it because of how large the initial investment is. Even then, I probably won't.

[billymonk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I consider myself too loose right now, but I don't think I'd ever call with any two cards hoping to hit a miracle flop regardless of the odds I'm given.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I think you're making a mistake. Hell, even LEE JONES is completing with any two cards in a 2/3 blind structure. In that case, with even one limper, you're getting 8:1 but with ridiculously good implied odds because of how small the ":1" is. You stand to make up many, many thirds of a small bet postflop on that miracle.

In a 1/2 blind structure, "any two will do" starts looking decent at about 5 limpers if I only have to put in 1/2 a SB. On the button, I think I want a full 7 limpers before I consider it because of how large the initial investment is. Even then, I probably won't.

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe it's my improving (read poor) postflop play that keeps me out of these situations. I understand hitting my miracle and sucking up bets like a vacuum, but it's those times I get a piece and in turn get big pot syndrome and start calling multiple bets when I shouldn't.

That isn't to say that I don't understand that at times you need to feel uncomfortable post flop, and its natural, I just can't put myself in that position yet.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
In a 1/2 blind structure, "any two will do" starts looking decent at about 5 limpers if I only have to put in 1/2 a SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

It might be better to complete with a total junk hand like 63 than a hand like J5. Flopping a pair of jacks can quickly lead to spewage if you're too aggressive postflop. Just be warned that some hands have reverse implied odds working against you.

[tiltaholic]

too loose or just right?

PokerStars Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $5. Hero posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 (poster) calls, Hero (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (13 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (11.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

River: (15.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 17.50 BB

[Eeegah]

Waaaaaaay too loose for my tastes, but I play tighter than ML standard. You can't even rely on flopping 2 pair being a lock for you with that since it's so easily counterfeited. No flush potential to help you out either.

If I post and it's raised I'll generally call with whatever I'd limp with anyway, so from the CO I'd call with 54s, but not 53o.

Edit: doubly so if by posting you're implying that you don't have reads on anyone at the table.

I definitely fold, (the 53o) there. i consider it if its suited and with a better read on the table postflop.

[MrWookie47]

That's just on the border for me. Actually, since you have position, you can probably get away with it. Since you're calling a full SB, your implied odds aren't quite as good, but it looks like you made up the deficit.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is CO with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $5. Hero posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 (poster) calls, Hero (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's see... raiser... two cold callers... one post-caller... position... I think it adds up about right.

I like the flop raise with a rainbow flop, but not with a two suited flop.