#21
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
[ QUOTE ]
After he calls 150, I would put his range of hands at 88-22, any suited connector except for AKs and 32s, any suited one gap other than 42s, Axs (except for AKs and probably not AQs), just about any broadway hand, suited or otherwise, and a few unsuited connector hands. [/ QUOTE ] Ok, but now after he raises to 2150, do you think he's still that weak? I mean, MP1 called 625, and you said he's not a good player, so, MP3 knows that most probably, MP1 will call this raise, so, looks like he wants to play with MP1; How does this fact affect MP3 range? |
#22
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
[ QUOTE ]
My problem with this hand is that you consider 35 to be middle aged and 45 to be old. [/ QUOTE ] Indeed. Ah, to be 18 again . . . |
#23
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
awesome.. very nice (regardless of the result).. i could see how maybe the aggressive guy would trap the initial raise, but once that SB did his accidental raise then aggressive guy would have been all over that pot (it's pretty juicy, obviously). And your raise is pretty damn big, and i think your fold equity is pretty good, and like you've said when you get called you're going to be like 43%.
Takes guts, and i really, really like it. |
#24
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
Oh, and i think you'd have gotten a better response posting this in the MTT forum.
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#25
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
I like the move, takes a lot of guts and I think is a winning strategy.
The only real drawback would be if you got called, won the hand (which is not as unlikely as some seem to assume) and then had to stay at the table for awhile. You'd have to adjust your game to your radically changed image and that would not be easy (well it's the kind of thing that isn't easy for me anyway). |
#26
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
[ QUOTE ]
and after his raise, what hands do you eliminate from that range? [/ QUOTE ] Why would you eliminate any hands from the original range? An aggressive player saw weakness (oops raise + call from weak player who is oop vs. the agg) and raised. Doesn't really tell you anything, does it? |
#27
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
[ QUOTE ]
My guess is that you have about a .95 * .95 * .65 chance of getting it folded around. (55-60%) When you are called by the MP1 or SB, you are likely around 25% equity. When you are called by the MP3, you are probably around 35-40% equity. (total rough intuition guesses without any hand range analysis). Also, your image is obviously perfect for it. [/ QUOTE ] If MP3 calls with 88-55, AQo-ATo, AQs-ATs, that puts you at around 42% equity and a chipEV of 8800 or so. If we open that up to {88-55, AQs-ATs, KQs-KJs, QJs, AQo-ATo, KQo-KJo, QJo} you're still at 39% and chipEV of 8100. I think it's reasonable to assume you're going to have around 40% equity there. Even { JJ-55, AKs-ATs, AKo-ATo } gives you that. So. Ignoring overcalls for the moment, because it makes the math easier. Let's say you have 25% equity around 10% of the time vs { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo } (that's 27.5%, but figure AKo gets folded some) and 40% equity another 30% of the time. When you have that 25% equity the pot's going to be 22500 or so, and when you have 40% equity it's going to be 21000. If they all fold, your stack's at 13400. 0.25 * 0.1 * 22500 + 0.40 * 0.3 * 21000 + 0.6 * 13400 = 11100, so about 1500 better than folding. |
#28
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
[ QUOTE ]
I like the move, takes a lot of guts and I think is a winning strategy. The only real drawback would be if you got called, won the hand (which is not as unlikely as some seem to assume) and then had to stay at the table for awhile. You'd have to adjust your game to your radically changed image and that would not be easy (well it's the kind of thing that isn't easy for me anyway). [/ QUOTE ] That would be the perfect image. They would have no clue what to think of me. I am tight, but I risk all my chips with J9s?! I play one hand every 30 minutes, but it's a bluff? What do I do when I get a real hand?! They would have no clue how to play against me. I certianly don't make plays like this very often, so if they start getting suspicious of my big all-ins, that's great for me. |
#29
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I like the move, takes a lot of guts and I think is a winning strategy. The only real drawback would be if you got called, won the hand (which is not as unlikely as some seem to assume) and then had to stay at the table for awhile. You'd have to adjust your game to your radically changed image and that would not be easy (well it's the kind of thing that isn't easy for me anyway). [/ QUOTE ] That would be the perfect image. They would have no clue what to think of me. I am tight, but I risk all my chips with J9s?! I play one hand every 30 minutes, but it's a bluff? What do I do when I get a real hand?! They would have no clue how to play against me. I certianly don't make plays like this very often, so if they start getting suspicious of my big all-ins, that's great for me. [/ QUOTE ] I agree completely. This is why I advocate a show if everyone folds to your all-in here. |
#30
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Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
I'm guessing MP3 called ... so when are you posting results?
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