Not too believable?

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
which brings us to the turn. checking is correct here! one of these guys probably has at least a weak A so why feed them. button plays weird so he may foolishly check an A here and if sb forgot to bet his then take the free card! betting here is a significant mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that if either of the two other players had any piece of that board and/or pocket pair in their hand they would have raised or c/r the flop. The fact that there was pretty much no aggression on the flop gives CDC a lot of bluffing power come that turn card.

Yes I am very sure that at least one Ace high is out there, but if CDC is gonna call this turn anyways, why not bet and hopefully get the weaker button (who may put CDC on a pocket pair and forget about chasing his 6 outer and also fear that SB may have a huge piece of that board) to fold.

If one or both of them come along, so be it, but I think a bet is a better choice than a check in this situation as it gives up too much (both in pot and the strength of CDC's hand.)

Lest not we forget if both or one of them tags along (and in this I would hope it would be SB as opposed to the button), then CDC still could have a live draw if his 9 or K is good.

Lawrence

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
ok i have some things to say because i really dont like the responses im reading. too many posts where people clearly arent thinking past point a.

this hand is expertly played.

preflop is standard/great. 4 handed utg this is a strong hand.

flop is good/normal follow through on brick board. please note that sb declines his option to checkraise both players here. thus he does not have an 8. button also flat calls. button smells like an A possibly given his random tendencies. sb or button could possibly hold a 5.

which brings us to the turn. checking is correct here! one of these guys probably has at least a weak A so why feed them. button plays weird so he may foolishly check an A here and if sb forgot to bet his then take the free card! betting here is a significant mistake.

the river. having narrowed down his opponent's hands hero sees that this pot is his, it's just a question now of how much of the pot does he want. sb smartly bets into him basically saying out loud "hey of the four of us here, button kinda sucks. why dont you raise so we can chop up his money?" the value play is to raise here and go ahead and pay off sb if he 3 bets. this one's not close, but it is nuanced and requires reading hands and thinking a little past "gee this seems like a hopeless waste of chips, no one is ever folding." button is so folding here enough to make it right.

sheesh.



[/ QUOTE ]

Hold on here is right. This play is not so great that there is no debate. Hero has to BOTH not be behind AND get the other guy to fold about 70% of the time here. IF the thrid guy is calling 50% of the time when he is chopping then he has to not be behind 82%. There is not exactly a lot of room for error on the reads.

Putting 2BB in here to win an additional 0.9BB is not particualrly thrilling. I think this is one where the EV is not worth the variance. (and we haven't even factored in that we are calling a 3 bet when behind). I would guess that your certainty of a chop is pretty close to the percentages required, but it is certainly not a no brainer.

[AffleckKGB]

[ QUOTE ]
this one's not close

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 4.75 BB before the river, which means you are attempting to win half of 1.58 BB from the button. You are risking 3BB under your assumption that you are calling any 3bet, SB is never folding, and you will be reraised if anyone has an 8 or pocket pair higher than 55.

So you are laying 3 to .79 or 3.8 to 1 that SB and button do not have an 8 or pocket pair higher than 55.

I say 1 out of 4.8 times they do, but if not, it's damn close.

[ QUOTE ]
"hey of the four of us here, button kinda sucks. why dont you raise so we can chop up his money?"

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you're not implying that the button should call?!

[mike l.]

no that doesnt make sense. youre saying you agree someone likely has an A, but youre saying go ahead and bet the turn anyway. someone may also have a 5 but you dont address that which is fine. anyway if sb has an A and he's checked it, it would be a disaster to bet now when given a free shot at 6 outs. ditto for button who may be willing to brain fart and let one peel with an A. betting the turn is incorrect.

your only argument only works if one of them will ever fold an A for one bet on the turn which i think will never happen.

[mike l.]

piece the hand together and put sb and button on a range of hands. you think hero should not raise the river?

[mike l.]

"it's damn close."

i think if you put together the likely hand range for the sb and button it's a mistake to not raise the river.

"I hope you're not implying that the button should call?!"

he should for one bet, but two bets will likely force him to fold. if i were faced with two cold i would fold, but feel like there was a significant chance i was being suckered out of my third.

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
piece the hand together and put sb and button on a range of hands. you think hero should not raise the river?

[/ QUOTE ]


Look, it is obvious that it is extrememly likley that this is a chop. I would even say you can be pretty certain. That said, people surprise me every single day with the cards they have and the way they play them. Just because I cannot think of many hands these plays can/should have doesn mean they cannot ever flip over cards that we are behind.

The point is there is very little upside to the play and a lot of variance. There are better spots to put 3 BB at risk than one in which you gain less than 1BB.

Anyway, I said that we are probably confindent enough of the chop (95%?) that the play probably makes sense from a strict EV perspective. I just would not say it isnt close. Further, if the play is 'expert', it not one that is gaining the hero much.

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]

There are better spots to put 3 BB at risk than one in which you gain less than 1BB.

Further, if the play is 'expert', it not one that is gaining the hero much.

[/ QUOTE ]


The obvious moves that make money (raising when you have the nuts heads-up) aren't expert ... it's the plays on the edge where you can extract a big bet here and there that differentiate better players and add money in not just that session, but every session, theoretically gaining thousands / tens of thousands / hundreds of thousands / millions over a year.

It looks like there are about 6.5 big bets in there on the river.

Guy 1 bets out. If everyone calls, there will inevitably be that chop and 3 people each get 3.166666 BB.

So, if you call 1, you get 3.16 back.

If you raise, you push out the final guy, and the pot is 10.5, so you get 5.25.

So you get 2+ extra BB for the extra 1 you raised.

Now imagine if Guy 1 folds...

I will admit that I would probably just call in this spot, but I think it very well be the expert play that Mike has mentioned.

Given the right read and their abilities, you might win the whole thing - or, at the very least, push out the other guy.

Or this can just be mindless madness meant to mess with your mind.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

[AffleckKGB]

[ QUOTE ]
So you get 2+ extra BB for the extra 1 you raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suspect you've never played any H/L games.

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]

I suspect you've never played any H/L games.

[/ QUOTE ]


I'd suspect that you were wrong and I'd further suspect that the answer isn't going to be as interesting as this mysterious comment.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com