TT - Big pot - Double paired board

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
But after thinking about it, I think his hand distribution is something like this:
hands that I beat and will call - Ax (30%) Kx (10%)
hands that call and I lose to - JJ, 9x (5%)
hands that checkraise - Qx (2%)
hands that fold - busted draws, Ax/Kx sometimes, JT, etc (53%)



[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't look at these at first, but these are definately wrong. Let's put pfr on a loose 3-betting range (being generous):
AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/99/AK/AQ/AJ/KQ/KJs

Of these we lose to:
AA/KK/QQ/JJ/99/AQ/KQ = 6+6+1+6+1+8+8 = 36 combos

We win against:
AK/AJ/KJs = 16+16+4 = 36 combos
Plus some of these hands should be folded before of the river or been played differantly.

Using this very loose range we're still only ahead 50% of the time. Sure, 18 of the combos we lose to will probably play this hand more aggressively before the river but many players would not have bet the turn with AK/AJ/KJs so we can say these factors cancel.

Probably it would be more appropriate to discount:

Of these we lose to:
AA/KK/QQ/JJ/99/AQ/KQ = 6+6+1+6+1+8+8 = 36 - 18/2 = 27 combos

We win against:
AK/AJ/KJs = 16+16+4 = 36/2 = 16 combos

Betting this river would be bad imo.

[Dopey]

Nick,

I agree with your line, but would like your thoughts on a few scenarios after we raise this flop.

Scenario 1: All call our flop raise. Turn is a rag and someone donk bets, Hero ?.... (Does it matter who donks?)

I really don't know where I would go here. Folding is probably in order right?

If folding is not correct then what if...

Scenario 2: All call our flop raise, Turn is a A, K, Q, or 9, and its donk bet by someone, Hero ?.... (Does it matter who donks?).

Pretty automatic fold right? A J on the turn worth a call if its the SB who donks and you are closing the action(right?) but what if its not SB and you dont close the action. I assume its still a call but its closer given the possiblity of a SB c/r (read dependent to fold, no read = call).

Scenario 3: SB 3-bets our flop raise, all call (I agree we are calling the 3-bet when we raise)

We are folding this unimproved right? What if we semi-improve - J on turn we'd call one bet open-ended, K or 8 are we calling getting likely 14-16:1 on the call. I assume we have to fold the gutshot assumming we are not good enough when we hit even given the odds we are getting.

Thoughts?

Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Scenario 1: All call our flop raise. Turn is a rag and someone donk bets, Hero ?.... (Does it matter who donks?)

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm folding no matter what. The scenario that's closest is if the turn brings a Q and someone else than pfr. I'm still folding though, with raising as 2nd.

[ QUOTE ]
Scenario 3: SB 3-bets our flop raise, all call (I agree we are calling the 3-bet when we raise)

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Yup, fold UI. Calling with a oesd or gut-shot is pretty easy, we're getting 16-14:1 (I didn't check your math here)and have 4+2 outs (we're also probably closing the action). Sometimes we're drawing dead, but not often. Sometimes we'll split when hit, but there's no doubt we have more than the 3 outs required.

[Luke]

Excellent set of posts Nick. You gave me a lot to think about and some good info to improve thought process in these spots.

Thanks,

Luke