ATs on a paired flop vs. a pre-flop maniac

SlantNGo · #1 09-24-2005, 12:54 AM

This guy was quite the maniac pre-flop, PFR 30% over 100 hands. After the flop though, he would settle down a bit, will still bet the flop & turn HU with nothing but slowing down to a raise, and checking on the river UI. I have seen him call on the flop with top 2-pair, waiting till the turn to raise, but no especially tricky postflop play from him.

On the flop, I believe I have the best hand about 70% of the time, and UTG+1 probably has 6 outs to beat me, although he most likely doesn't know it. So I raise to fold him. Maniac thought before calling (usually his actions are instant).

On the turn, the maniac isn't going anywhere IMO if I bet. I'm wondering if I should have bet this for value given how often I thought I was ahead. I typically check here against a normal aggressive player to induce a bluff on the river if I'm ahead, and to thwart a turn-check raise and see a showdown for 1 bet if I'm behind.

Is this overthinking it/being too cautious with what seems to be a relatively aggressive but straightforward postflop player?

Party Poker 1.00/2.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (14.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.

River: (9.25 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+2 bets, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls.

Final Pot: 13.25 BB.

Greg J · #2 09-24-2005, 01:36 AM

I like it. Everything. I could see a bet on the turn, but I like the check through since I'm thinking if you are behind (maniacs get hands too) you are getting checkraised. I also like the river raise --- totally standard there. Of course I call this down UI on the river.

I think I would ideally play it the same on all streets. In reality I would probably make what I think would be the mistake of betting the turn.

cold_cash · #3 09-24-2005, 02:29 AM

I'm assuming this guy is not only over-agressive before the flop, but he's also too loose.

If this is the case, I think you should definetely bet the turn. That's not an easy board to hit.

If you want to weiner out and check a street, do it on the river when you miss.

chiachu · #4 09-24-2005, 02:58 AM

id play it the same way.

i like checking behind on the turn and calling a bet on the river with A high.
But pairing up and raising is the better way to play the hand [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

#5 09-24-2005, 03:22 AM

Since you think you're ahead 70% on the flop and this opponent isn't tricky, I'm betting this turn. If the opponent were tricky or his preflop cap actually meant something, that's when I'd be inclined to check the turn.

thesharpie · #6 09-24-2005, 10:19 AM

I don't see the point in betting the turn if this guy is guaranteed to see the river, and even without the read that he's guaranteed to I think most maniacs would on this board, and even if he's not tricky we're going to have to call the turn to draw, and are you going to feel good about folding a 13BB pot on a ragged board against a maniac with AT high?

If he's the type to checkraise bluff here frequently, now we're talking, bet that [censored] for value and call down. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

SlantNGo · #7 09-24-2005, 01:19 PM

His VPIP is 40%, which I find actually pretty low for a guy who raises 30%. Anyways, I guess I'll give it a go Aaron W. style... I'll assume he check-raises me 50% of the time when he's ahead, and that he'll bet the river 100% of the time if I check the turn. Also going by the assumption that I'm ahead 70% of the time here.

Bet turn, check river:
0.7 * 1 - 0.3 * (0.5 * 1 + 0.5 * 3) = 0.1 BB
If I'm ahead, I win 1 bet on the turn. If I'm behind, half of the time I lose 1 bet on the turn, half of the time I lose 2 on the turn to a c/r and 1 on the river.

Bet turn, bet river:
0.7 * 2 - 0.3 * (0.5 * 2 + 0.5 * 3) = 0.65 BB
In the turn c/r case, I lose the same amount. I'm also discounting the possibility of a river c/r.

Checking:
0.7 * 1 - 0.3 * 1 = 0.4 BB
By the assumption that villain will bet the river 100% of the time when I check (this one I'm pretty confident of), I always end up paying 0 bets on the turn and 1 on the river.

In all of these cases, I assumed a river blank. So if I think I'm ahead of villain 70% of the time, it looks like beting both streets for value is best, and betting the turn with the intention of checking the river is bad. If I drop it to 60%, I get:

Bet turn, check river:
0.6 * 1 - 0.4 * (0.5 * 1 + 0.5 * 3) = -0.2 BB

Bet turn, bet river:
0.6 * 2 - 0.4 * (0.5 * 2 + 0.5 * 3) = 0.2 BB

Checking:
0.6 * 1 - 0.4 * 1 = 0.2 BB

If this is the case, then I like checking better because I've oversimplified the bet turn/bet river case and may end up putting more bets in if he decides to c/r the river or win less if he somehow decides to fold the river.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm assuming this guy is not only over-agressive before the flop, but he's also too loose.

If this is the case, I think you should definetely bet the turn. That's not an easy board to hit.

If you want to weiner out and check a street, do it on the river when you miss.

[/ QUOTE ]

SlantNGo · #8 09-24-2005, 11:29 PM

Well, this thread seems to have died so... imagine my surprise when he flipped over two low diamonds!