Is it safe to fold here?

[Paluka]

I didn't notice the backdoor flush draw. I would normally call here, but fold if there were no diamonds.

[Pepsquad]

Call this down.

[DeeJ]

actually I raise pf here. AQs is likely to be the best hand, or at least 2nd best to CO, which means I think you'd benefit from getting more in the pot.

flop is an easy call for me.

turn is ugly, yes. I grit my teeth and call. There's no point 3-betting because you could be dead already. But SB could be isolating mr donk and you have to stay in the pot - he could easily have KQ,QJ,QT,Q9 here as often as he has 77, 66, 76, 56 or 89.

[ QUOTE ]
actually I raise pf here. AQs is likely to be the best hand, or at least 2nd best to CO, which means I think you'd benefit from getting more in the pot.

flop is an easy call for me.

turn is ugly, yes. I grit my teeth and call. There's no point 3-betting because you could be dead already. But SB could be isolating mr donk and you have to stay in the pot - he could easily have KQ,QJ,QT,Q9 here as often as he has 77, 66, 76, 56 or 89.

[/ QUOTE ]
How can you say there is no point to 3 betting? I believe if the hero doesnt fold(I would fold on this board) 3 betting is much better than callling. By 3 betting you can possibly force the MP guy off of many hands like any 5 or 4 outer, or if he calls anyways you still force him to call unprofitably. If the hero thinks his hand may be best, 3 betting the turn is vital to give his hand the best possible chance to take down this large pot, investing an extra big bet is worth it. That is my take on the situation, can anyone give me some arguments for just calling the turn raise as opposed to 3 betting it?

[zombies kill]

am i the only one who folds the flop AND wouldve 3bet the turn had i seen it?

[GoodOL]

I think you must bet the turn to avoid exactly what happened...create a difficult decision.

If you bet the turn:

1. Donk raises. Now SB is faced with the decision. If he is on a weak draw he either folds or is charged more. If he is on a monster, he probably three bets and you can fold.

2. Donk calls. Now SB is less likely to try any trickery. If he raises, you still have a difficult decision, but I think you have more info.

[CardSharpCook]

Why 3-betting is bad:

MP2 is likely drawing very slim, and may be drawing dead. SB is winning this hand most of the time. SB's play indicates a flopped monster. It is of low likelyhood that SB called with overcards and then hit a queen, or that the SB check/caled the flop with just a 7 to chk/rz when a W hits. Regardless of my correct action, it is clear that the SB has the best hand here most of the time (my question is how often is "most"). If I 3bet, I allow MP2 to toss his low-outer and SB to 4-bet, thereby costing me 5bets, instead of 3, to see if my hand is good. There are currently 10.5 bets in the pot. My hand must be good 3/10.5 times to make this call (3/11.5 if we assume MP1 calls). If I raise, I need this hand to be good 5/10.5 times (we assume MP1 does not call). So then, does my equity increase 23% by eliminating MP1? Probably not.

Counter-argument: SB caps with a str8, so we can fold or calls with two-pair, and checks the river, keeping our investment to 3 BBs here no matter what. Ok, now the question is does removing MP1 increase our equity 9% the times that SB does not cap. The answer is still no. SB is still gaining most of this equity and if we evaluate MP1 at 5 outs, he has only 10% equity to begin with. It may improve our eq by 3 or 4% (provided that we fold to a cap and SB checks the river) but we would be better served keeping MP1 in the pot.

CSC

[arod15]

yes its safe FOLD

[steveyz]

I don't think you can fold here, I think SB's most likely had is a worse Q, followed by a slowplayed monster. I'd call and re-evaluate on the river.

[DeeJ]

The problem here is more likely SB than the MP guy. CSC says what I feel, that the MP guy is low pot equity whereas SB either has a monster or is trying to isolate. If he's got a monster I lose, if he's trying to isolate I could be tied or ahead in which case I may win extra bets from the MP guy if he calls. I may of course be giving SB a winning draw. Would you fold to a turn cap, if you 3-bet ?