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#1
09-23-2005, 01:51 AM
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Whats the right play?
Opponent had recently sat down, and hadn't played any of the 10 hands he had been dealt.
7 Card Stud High ($5/$10), Ante $0.50, Bring-In $2 (hand converter) 3rd Street - (0.70 SB) Seat 1: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds Seat 3: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds Hero: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___[????] Seat 5: xx xx 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___<?> Seat 6: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds Seat 7: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds Seat 8: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___completes 
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#4
09-23-2005, 02:20 AM
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Re: Whats the right play?
It is a tight structure... given that you have to spend a fair bit of money to find out if you should fold, it's probably best to go ahead and fold. I wouldn't commit money in this tight structure without being much more sure that I'm not a big dog. You're probably only slightly ahead in the best-case scenario, but there are a lot of worst case scenarios.
A player who hasn't played a single hand so far is not likely to be completing with just a pair of 7's into two overcards. If he is doing that, then I'm guessing he has a suited overcard down below. What's more likely is a wired pair higher than your 8's. Again, in a looser structure, I'd probably spend the money to fight for the pot--but I don't think there's a good enough reason to get involved here.
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#5
09-23-2005, 02:58 AM
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Re: Whats the rigth play?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Easy fold imo. [/ QUOTE ] why? [/ QUOTE ] Okay, let’s put him on a range of hands. We already know that he isn’t a maniac. Also, the fact that he folded ten hands in a row and then completed suggests that he isn’t loose-passive, but rather tight-aggressive (or maybe loose-aggressive, in which case he just got total garbage on his first ten hands, but we’ll just have to assume he’s solid until proven otherwise. It’s safer and far less costly). So. We can rule out a 3-flush, with 4 spades out. He should have a pair here. He’s looking at an ace and a queen. If I was in this spot, I’d be raising with queens, kings and aces and rolled sevens. Obviously, your hand sucks against this range. For the sake of discussion though, and because most people have lower raising standards than me, let’s add some other hands. Say, jacks, 7K7 and 7A7. Against this range, you have 49% equity. This is not so great anyway. Now let’s assume he is tighter than this and won’t raise with 7A7 here because of the dead ace. Your equity drops to 45%. And finally, this is what happens if he is indeed solid and will raise only with jacks through rolled 7s: Your equity drops to 35%. Yuck. I guess you were confused here because you’re apparently taking a pair of 8s up against a pair of 7s. This just isn’t the case, though. Hope this helps.
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#6
09-23-2005, 03:29 AM
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Re: Whats the right play?
fold. not enough people in the pot and you only have your ante invested. and, as mentioned, the likely range of hands puts you WAY behind.
so, without reason to believe he doesn't have one of the hands roland mentioned, this is an easy fold.
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#7
09-23-2005, 03:41 AM
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Re: Whats the right play?
Just to further emphasize this…
If I (or Chef or Beer or any other player with these high raising standards) was the raiser in this hand, you would be correct to fold kings here, sine you’re average equity is only 41%. Coming to think of it, I recently folded kings when Chef raised in EP with a king up. She had buried aces…
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#8
09-23-2005, 03:50 AM
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Re: Whats the right play?
[ QUOTE ]
Just to further emphasize this… If I (or Chef or Beer or any other player with these high raising standards) was the raiser in this hand, you would be correct to fold kings here, sine you’re average equity is only 41%. Coming to think of it, I recently folded kings when Chef raised in EP with a king up. She had buried aces… [/ QUOTE ] Is this correct in Party's 5/10 but not in a loosely structured game? I don't know how much your raising standards expand in the looser game, though.
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#9
09-23-2005, 03:58 AM
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Re: Whats the right play?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Just to further emphasize this… If I (or Chef or Beer or any other player with these high raising standards) was the raiser in this hand, you would be correct to fold kings here, sine you’re average equity is only 41%. Coming to think of it, I recently folded kings when Chef raised in EP with a king up. She had buried aces… [/ QUOTE ] Is this correct in Party's 5/10 but not in a loosely structured game? I don't know how much your raising standards expand in the looser game, though. [/ QUOTE ] In this particular situation, my raising standards would remain the same. So although the larger initial pot makes playing the kings more reasonable, it is probably still incorrect. Generally though, hand reading becomes much more difficult in higher ante games. Thus accurate laydowns like this are probably not usually called for.
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