JJ HU on scary flop

pauliewalnuts · #1 09-22-2005, 08:51 PM

Villian in this hand is a 24/8/4 over about 120 hands. If he bet the flop, I was folding. If he didnt and called my flop bet, I figured that should probably be the last money I put in. Any of you bet this turn for a free showdown or is this hand just not worth it anymore?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, Hero 3-bets, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.66 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 5.66 BB

davet · #2 09-22-2005, 08:55 PM

Classic WAWB, I would have to bet out the turn here.

pauliewalnuts · #3 09-22-2005, 08:59 PM

WA/WB usually applies when someone is betting into you I thought? Dont know if it would apply in this situation.

mtdoak · #4 09-22-2005, 09:08 PM

Huh?? Classic bet/fold the turn. If your going to check to try to boat up, you have to call the river. He'll bet into you with any two cards on that river. I think your ahead at least 20% of the time here. Call.

Azhrarn · #5 09-22-2005, 09:10 PM

I would bet the turn. He could have nines, tens and maybe eights, and he thinks it's weak to fold on the flop. He could have KJs or even KTs or JTs.

pauliewalnuts · #6 09-22-2005, 09:27 PM

His PFR was only 8 over a decent number of hands and I hadnt seen him get out of line yet. So I doubt he is rasing KTs, JTs, or 88 UTG. He may raise 99 or KJs, but I didnt raises those hands UTG back when my PFR was only 8. I know the fold seems weak(and may be) but I just didnt really see any hands he would raise with UTG that I can beat. TT and KJs both got there on the river as well.

I'm not trying to say I'm right and everyone else is wrong, but his range is an important factor here.

Azhrarn · #7 09-22-2005, 09:44 PM

I agree the ones you mentioned are less likely possibilities, but you shouldn't assume his 8% is the same as your 8% would be, especially as he only raises about a third of the hands he plays (as opposed to the typical TAG, who raises more than half the time they play.)

And the river card has nothing to do with this. I'm talking about reasons for betting the turn. (And given the board, I would usually plan on not putting more money in after my turn bet.) I don't mind the river fold given the small pot, but I think betting the turn is better than checking it.