Another hand from the archives

[Dopey]

Im still capping the turn, but I'm not sure it is correct. If you are behind you have atleast 8 outs and there is a decent chances you are ahead, but based on the action it makes alot of sense for atleast one of them having JT (Anyone willing to calculate how sure you need to be that atleast on of them has JT to make calling correct?)

I have multiple river questions based on different turn actions

River questions:
1. If you cap the turn and both call, what is your river line if you dont improve assuming ...

BB bets? (Call, Is there any action that gets you to fold?)
BB checks? (Bet/Call = standard?)

2. If you call the turn, button caps and you both call, what is your river line if you dont improve assuming ...

BB bets? (You'd be trapped in the middle, but You'd have to call all river bets right?)
BB checks? (Is there value in the bet after button capped, or is checking with the intention of trying to keep BB in to call a possible bet better?)

Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[toss]

I think its more likely for BB to have JT since he's in the blinds. (Button is more likely to coldcall PF with KQ, AQ instead of JT)

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]
I enjoyed reading through this one.

8-handed Party 3/6.

Hero open raises UTG+1 with red AA. The Button cold calls, the SB folds and the BB calls. The villains are unknown but haven't gotten out of line yet.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB 3-bets, Hero

What's Hero's plan? Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

The "Hero calls" in the flop line was a typo yes?

Shouldn't the plan be to call the turn and check / fold the river since it looks very much like one or both villans has JT?

I probably couldn't make this fold myself since I suck and would end up trapped like a ping pong ball on the river [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[mack848]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I enjoyed reading through this one.

8-handed Party 3/6.

Hero open raises UTG+1 with red AA. The Button cold calls, the SB folds and the BB calls. The villains are unknown but haven't gotten out of line yet.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB checks, Hero bets, Button raises, BB 3-bets, Hero

What's Hero's plan? Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

The "Hero calls" in the flop line was a typo yes?

Shouldn't the plan be to call the turn and check / fold the river since it looks very much like one or both villans has JT?


[/ QUOTE ]

If Button caps after your turn call, then I think it could be a river check/fold. The pot will be ~17BB (?), but you could get trapped for 3 or 4 bets.

If Button calls the 3-bet, then I think calling BB river bet is OK, as Button probably won't raise and you might be good 5% of the time.

[Dopey]

The real problem is your trapped in the middle. The button's action on the turn after you call might make the river decision a little easier, so that might be a reason to call and not cap the turn. Im too tired to do the math but what % do you have to know your beat to make just calling correct, cause I still think based on the range of hands they could have combined with your chances to improve its a very close decision. Then again, Im wrong alot [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Can it really be right to fold this for one bet on the river unimproved? I can't do it. The only way I could get away on the river is if it is 2 more bets back to me (BB bets, Hero calls, Button raises, BB raises), but even that wouldn't fell right.

Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[wrto4556]

I started to think about this hand a bunch. It's likely we're beat by BB but we are getting 2-1 on a cap if we know button is coming for two more. We only have to have the best hand 33% of the time to cap, right?

On the river if BB leads again we can call and hope for over call from button.

[lufbradolly]

Hero caps. Because he's losing to one hand JT. If BB leads the river just call UI.

[Dopey]

I don't think 33% is valid on the turn because we also have to face the river action. The number also needs to factor in our chance to improve.

I really am too tired (and lazy) to do the math now but it is something I will look into after I get some sleep (unless someone beats me to it).

Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Entity]

I call. I think it's fairly important to see if Button caps here.

Rob

[jskills]

It sure looks like BB has JT and the button on a flush draw (or possibly AQ, AJ or 33). Seeing button's action on the turn will be telling, i.e. if he calls 2-bets and doesn't cap, I'd think flush draw. Capping says it's either 2 pair or an underset to me anyway.

If the river brings another [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and given our read on the turn action, we're really not happy here. We could be looking at the 3rd best hand at that point.

Sure I'd call the river for one bet in any case, but I think the point of this excercise is that you have no guarantee that it will be just one bet, since you're in the middle of two people who may hold better hands than you and you risk having to spend 4 bets.