Flopped set with an ugly turn

#1 09-21-2005, 10:45 PM

This is like my fourth hand at the table and no PT data on this player. I raise a decent amount on the flop to get out the draws. But the turn is possibly the ugliest card in the deck. Whats your move on the turn, and river if you see it.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

BB ($76.95)
UTG ($136.95)
Hero ($98.50)
CO ($101.50)
Button ($44.60)
SB ($35.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, Hero calls $1, CO calls $1, Button calls $1, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($5) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets $5, Hero raises to $15, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB calls $10.

Turn: ($35) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

Villain Bets 30

Hero ????

LaramieJC · #2 09-21-2005, 11:03 PM

This is a tough situation. You have 11 outs to a boat or better, so you need 3.2:1 or better to make this +EV. If you think you can stack him on the river if you hit you're getting something like 3.15:1. Your spades may be good also if he is the type who would bet an OESD on the flop w/o a backdoor flush draw, but I doubt it. I'd want to have a better read here to make the call but if I did call, I'd check a river spade through or fold if he bets all in and bet/raise what he has left if one of my 11 outs come.

JC

gol4pro · #3 09-21-2005, 11:41 PM

Call, suckout, and take his stack on the river.

Or, Call, don't suckout, and give him the pot.

Seems easy to me.

#4 09-21-2005, 11:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Call, suckout, and take his stack on the river.

Or, Call, don't suckout, and give him the pot.

Seems easy to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

well that was insightful