Feedback on KK hand requested

[J Chap]

2 things

Thing 1) what about how pot committed hero is (he's got just short of 50% of his stack in this pot right now.

He's putting $11 into a pot of $27 at this point.

Thing 2) even if villain has the damn ace, hero has 1 king, 3 queens, 3 jacks, 3 tens = 10 outs to win. Plus he has 3 aces to split.


I'm not good enough at all the stats, but does that not affect anything?

[LaramieJC]

I call here. Getting just over 2.5:1 with 10 outs to win and 3 to tie if he does indeed have an A, I think this is +EV. The fact that he immediately leads with the push when the scare card fell makes me think that there is even a good chance you are ahead at this point and up against a semi-bluff.

[nietzreznor]

I call. The pot is $18, he bets $11, so you have to call $11 to win $29, which is almost 3:1. You fill up ~20% of the time you are behind, and you will split when an ace falls (2 or 3 outs to split). This together with the times you are ahead (probably not often, but certainly you will be ahead sometimes), and I think calling is probably slightly +EV here.

[kurto]

There's a good chance he has 1 less out then you're saying. Villian if he's not a total lag, will likely have a broadway kicker. It may not change things much but that's likely to be one less out.

10 outs at the max to win is less then 3-1.

If the villain has an ace, Worse case scenario (A-2)... according to the pokercalculator, hero only has a 26% of winning. Hes not getting 4-1 on his money.

That would change if you think there's a decent chance he's bluffing, but I don't think he is. The villain has to consider the possibility that the hero raised with a hand like AK... I don't think 99% of players do this without an ace.

[JoshNjuice]

I'm glad to see this has generated a little discussion.

I called. He had Ah9h (broadway with the nut flush draw) and I spiked a K on the river for quads to win the hand. I'm still not convinced that I made the wrong call.

(In the moment, I was ball-parking these numbers and they led me to make the call after almost all my time bank had expired) The numbers work out to be pretty close. If he has an Ace (and not a K, Q, J or T), then I have 10 outs to win and 3 to split. I'll call that 11.5 outs and a 26% chance--right at 1:3--to "not lose". I'm getting a little better than 2.4:1 on my money (I get the "1" to be 29.4%). So, the difference between my pot odds and odds of not losing is 29.4 - 26 = 3.4%

The decision to call or fold basically comes down to the answer to the question "How likely is the villain to be bluffing here?". My math says he needs only be bluffing about 3% of the time to make the call break-even. That means I break even if he's bluffing about 1 in 30 hands. I think that's uber likely in this situation.

Ok, now it's time for those of you who understand this game and the math to tell me why I'm wrong. Let me have it!

JoshNjuice