Playing overs on the flop -- stats!

[Cosimo]

So my last 20k hands sucked. -143BB, which is pretty damn steep. Bad luck? Bad play? Really, I guess, the question is how much of both?

My first step was to look at basic hand types (pairs, suited hands worth calling with, high hands, and trash) and see how I was doing. Among other things that came from that, I noticed I was 10% down on number of sets hit, something that can contribute substatially to win -- so if I'm not hitting all the sets that I a expect to (given the odds), that'll hurt my winrate. Anyway, that stuff isn't what I have here.

I wanted to know next was if the way I was playing certain hands made sense. I started with overcards on the flop. So I ran these 20k hands through a little parser, and had it break down hands by whether or not I had an ace, if the pot was 6.5SB or larger, and what my flop action was. Note that this only includes the number of times I got to the flop, and what I had was overcards to the flop. This will include things like T7o when the flop comes 322, but not pocket pairs (which I counted separately and aren't included here).

Each line is one of the 36 groups, where I either had an ace or didn't, the pot was large or small, what my aggression was on the flop, and a brief summary of preflop action.

As for the actions, "bet" includes raising, and "call" does not include any previous bet or raise on my part. "Delta" is in hundreds of a big bet.

Ok, first group, no preflop raise.

noace, smallpot, checked: 117 times, 2 won, -6500 delta
ace, smallpot, checked: 24 times, 0 won, -1300 delta
noace, bigpot, checked: 0 times, 0 won, 0 delta
ace, bigpot, checked: 0 times, 0 won, 0 delta
noace, smallpot, bet: 3 times, 2 won, -150 delta
ace, smallpot, bet: 3 times, 2 won, -50 delta
noace, bigpot, bet: 0 times, 0 won, 0 delta
ace, bigpot, bet: 0 times, 0 won, 0 delta
noace, smallpot, called: 1 times, 0 won, -100 delta
ace, smallpot, called: 1 times, 0 won, -100 delta
noace, bigpot, called: 0 times, 0 won, 0 delta
ace, bigpot, called: 0 times, 0 won, 0 delta

Second group: I raised preflop

noace, smallpot, checked: 40 times, 1 won, -4025 delta
ace, smallpot, checked: 73 times, 4 won, -7100 delta
noace, bigpot, checked: 9 times, 0 won, -1850 delta
ace, bigpot, checked: 13 times, 0 won, -3200 delta
noace, smallpot, bet: 20 times, 10 won, 500 delta
ace, smallpot, bet: 109 times, 41 won, -1202 delta
noace, bigpot, bet: 7 times, 2 won, -1000 delta
ace, bigpot, bet: 15 times, 6 won, 375 delta
noace, smallpot, called: 26 times, 1 won, -3900 delta
ace, smallpot, called: 20 times, 0 won, -4600 delta
noace, bigpot, called: 4 times, 0 won, -1700 delta
ace, bigpot, called: 25 times, 3 won, -3900 delta

Third group: someone else raised preflop

noace, smallpot, checked: 23 times, 0 won, -2400 delta
ace, smallpot, checked: 19 times, 0 won, -2100 delta
noace, bigpot, checked: 15 times, 0 won, -3700 delta
ace, bigpot, checked: 3 times, 0 won, -700 delta
noace, smallpot, bet: 2 times, 0 won, -550 delta
ace, smallpot, bet: 5 times, 0 won, -1650 delta
noace, bigpot, bet: 0 times, 0 won, 0 delta
ace, bigpot, bet: 0 times, 0 won, 0 delta
noace, smallpot, called: 12 times, 0 won, -1900 delta
ace, smallpot, called: 3 times, 0 won, -650 delta
noace, bigpot, called: 2 times, 0 won, -600 delta
ace, bigpot, called: 0 times, 0 won, 0 delta

Analysis to follow.

[bozlax]

Holy [censored], this is worse than that guy that cut and pasted in his starting hand stats the other day. What the hell is this?

[benkath1]

What in the world is a delta? (in regards to poker)

[Cosimo]

First, that's an awful lot of red. But then again, the only things I'm counting here are whether I had overs or not, without looking at whether I started with something good or if I was just in the blinds or what. Also, these are all hands which I didn't make a pair on the flop. (Note, I could have the top end of a straight, or even a made flush, and these stats don't pull that out.)

Generally, overcards that missed the flop caused a lot of bleeding. So what to glean from this?

1) Calling after I raised preflop seems to be a good way to spew money. Maybe I wasn't calling enough (ie to the river) when I should, but it seems that the best option is just to throw the hand away. This is I think the most valuable information for others: if you raise preflop and don't have a pair, then either bet, raise, or fold.

2) Betting is better than calling. This is probably an artifact of details not shown here -- like if I had a flush draw, other good draw, top two, etc. It seems that I lost money on these hands in general, but that I also generally made back some of what I had invested preflop.

3) 0 wins when someone else raises preflop. When I don't raise preflop but someone else does, that means either a cold call (which I do extremely rarely), or I'm in the big blind or just posted. Betting 7 times is prolly flush draws, or I'm in LP and it gets checked to me -- this is a tiny number, so I can't really say anything about it. Likewise, for the 17 times that I called on the flop after someone else's preflop raise, 0 wins is I guess only 2-3 wins off of expectation. Maybe, again, I need to call more.

[Cosimo]

[ QUOTE ]
Holy [censored], this is worse than that guy that cut and pasted in his starting hand stats the other day. What the hell is this?

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, ok, this could prolly go in the Stats thread, which I just noted, yet I lack that power now. :\

I was hoping some other stats geeks might get something from it tho.

(btw, the "delta" mentioned was how much I won or lost on the hand, in hundredths of a big bet.)