The Notorious Ed Miller 'Backdoor Two Pair'

[FlyingSumo]

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You call flop
For a total of 41 times, you will miss and fold turn
For a total of 6 times you will see the river, lets say approx. 1.5 BB put in on turn
For a total of 41 times, you will miss and fold river
For a total of 5 times, you will hit the river, paying lets say 1.5 BB on avg, and winning 60 % of the time
Lets say avg profit when winning is 50BB's. Lets add up the numbers:

41 X 0.5 BB = 20.5 BB's (lost)
6 X 41 X 2.0 BB = 492.0 BB's (lost)
(6 X 5 X 50 BB)*0.6 = 900 BB's (won)

This looks like a pretty easy call to me given those assumptions.

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...can't believe what a number crunch my post turned into. But good work guys. I'm interested to hear Hammers reply.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

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I guess he will say : "you stupid moron, you forgot to multiply flop with 47, making it 963.5 BB's (lost)..." so....

963.5+492 = 1455.5 BB's lost

6x5x50 = 1500 / 100 = 15

1455.5 / 15 = approx. 97...

So you would need to be approx. 97 % sure you hand helds up on river...

My bad.