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#11
09-14-2005, 11:27 PM
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Re: How often do you pull something like this?
[ QUOTE ]
No reads on UTG - he just sat down and posted. BB has been around for a short while and is a bit fishy. Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $0.50. UTG (poster) checks, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks. Flop: (4 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> Hero checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Button folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>... [/ QUOTE ] Villains folded, Hero takes down the pot. I had planned to fold to a 3-bet, bet-fold the turn, and check-fold the river if I was only called on the turn. This was the first time (as far as I can remember) that I've pulled this play without a read and without a solid reason. It made me wonder if there was ever a good time to check-raise the flop with nothing in short-handed games. If villains fold outright, then I've invested 1 BB to win 2.5 BB and this needs to work about 29% of the time. If only UTG calls and if he calls all the time -- then when I lead the turn, I've invested 2 BB to win 3 BB, so I must take it down by the turn bet 40% of the time to show a profit. It looks bad when framed that way, but is it possible for a combination of the two to lead to profit? Suppose the probability villain folds immediately is X and the probability that he calls the check raise and folds on the turn is Y. What is the relationship between X and Y to make money? (Ignoring flop 3-bets for now) EV = X*(+2.5) + (1-X)*Y*(+3) + (1-X)*(1-Y)*(-2) = 2.5*X + 3*Y - 3*X*Y - 2 + 2*X + 2*Y - 2*X*Y = -X*Y + .5*X + Y + 2 So we want EV > 0. A little bit of algebra and this inequality becomes Y > .9 - .5/(1-X) Rather than try to figure out a way of graphing it and pasting the image onto this post, I'll just make a table. If X is some value, what is the smallest Y can be for this to still be profitable? <font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>X = .. | Y > .. .00 | .40 .10 | .34 .20 | .275 .30 | .19 .40 | .07 .44 | .00</pre><hr /> Anyone care to speculate how often villain folds to a check-raise here? In other words, how often is villain betting at the pot with basically nothing? I don't know the answer and I don't have anything *CLOSE* to a guess. But it's been my experience that villain folds 100% of the time to this check-raise... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] 
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#12
09-14-2005, 11:28 PM
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Re: How often do you pull something like this?
[ QUOTE ]
Good idea since he posted. However, I wouldn't do it with 44 or 55. Higher than middle pair, i.e. 77, and I'd raise it in a heartbeat. [/ QUOTE ] Would you bet on this flop with 77?
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#13
09-14-2005, 11:35 PM
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Re: How often do you pull something like this?
I've decided to start replying to hands to get other people's opinions on my opinions to make sure train of thought goes the right way.
If I don't hit my set on a flop with a low to medium pair, I almost always fold. The pot odds never lay 22:1 preflop for actually drawing out your set, the hand will hardly ever hold up itself. Even when I have a pair of jacks and there's an overcard on there I'm extremely scared =\
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#15
09-14-2005, 11:39 PM
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Re: How often do you pull something like this?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm just always betting that flop, so I guess I don't run in to that situation much. [/ QUOTE ] I would neither lead this flop into 3 people nor check-raise after UTG leads it into 3 people. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, thought this was 3-handed. 4-handed = check/fold.
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#16
09-14-2005, 11:43 PM
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Re: How often do you pull something like this?
[ QUOTE ]
If I don't hit my set on a flop with a low to medium pair, I almost always fold. The pot odds never lay 22:1 preflop for actually drawing out your set, the hand will hardly ever hold up itself. Even when I have a pair of jacks and there's an overcard on there I'm extremely scared =\ [/ QUOTE ] Good thoughts, and good plan to post - it'll help in the long run. I think your plan with those pairs works well in full-ring games, but that changes significantly when the table is short-handed. I'm not saying Aaron's play is good or bad, but a pair goes way up in value with less people in the hand.
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#18
09-15-2005, 02:15 AM
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Re: How often do you pull something like this?
[ QUOTE ]
Pretty much never. [/ QUOTE ] didn't say absolutely never. I didn't grunch it but I was kinda shocked at all the negative responses. It ain't something I'd do very often. But the flop didn't seem to be too bad for this kinda move. C/R to represent the A will usually win the pot if no one else has one.
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#19
09-15-2005, 02:24 AM
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Re: How often do you pull something like this?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Pretty much never. [/ QUOTE ] didn't say absolutely never. I didn't grunch it but I was kinda shocked at all the negative responses. It ain't something I'd do very often. But the flop didn't seem to be too bad for this kinda move. C/R to represent the A will usually win the pot if no one else has one. [/ QUOTE ] ... will usually win the pot ... should read: ... will sometimes win the tiny pot ... and if it doesn't, it will be a waste of two small bets (and more later if we choose to continue the betting) because we have almost no chance to improve. if utg has top or middle pair, he isn't going anywhere.
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#20
09-15-2005, 02:28 AM
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Re: How often do you pull something like this?
This is rather tangential, but Here's something interesting I found while running PokerStove on this hand. When I first ran it I did so against 3 opponents playing any two. Our equity was around 22.5%--we were behind even completely random hands. Then I realized it was now 3 handed and adjusted the scenario accordingly, and our equity became 35%. I could understand being proportionally less ahead 4-handed, or less behind 3-handed, but why would decreasing the number of players change us from +edge to -edge? This is something I suspect I was supposed to have figured out my first week of playing poker, but it still seems odd to me.
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