Don't Get 4th! $109

[Back In Black]

I believe that many are this weak-tight, yes.

[microbet]

The math being used takes into account the equity position of your stack if you win.

Your position, I believe, is that people play more incorrectly than they should in that situation so your equity is higher than predicted. I think this is based on the idea that they fold too much.

Either that or they call too much.

[I'm going to make a slight cop-out and say I'm working right now so this isn't necessarily perfectly thought out, and will give it more thought if it is called for.]

[microbet]

Hmm, when doing the $EV calcs, does one need to take into account the mouse you smashed?

[Matt R.]

(Haven't read the responses to this post, but this is spot on)

Sorry if I'm repeating posts above me without reading them, but this is a great post. If you push and win this hand either through a showdown or by villain folding, you can move in with virutally any 2 the next hand (against most players) and the next hand, and the next hand... until someone picks up a monster or gets fed up with you and calls. You stand to win a LOT in blinds on average in the next several hands if you push and win this hand.

Also... I forget what the 'window' is exactly for ICM generally being accepted as a 'neutral' decision. Was it
-0.5% still MAY be a good push, or is it lower (more negative) than that? Obviously this is an estimate, but I remember seeing this # somewhere.

[Absalon]

does anyone else think the big stack was on a "pure steal"?
i cant see villain calling a push by hero especially since hero is the only one in the tournament that can cripple him. by betting out 1100 hes telling the big blind that its do or die for him if he calls. the villain probably bet 1100 because its a bet big enough to push hero off a marginal hand (9's,KJ,etc) but small enough to leave himself a healthy stack just in case hero wakes up with a monster and comes over the top.

i think villain folds to a push 30-40% of the time with Kx or ace rag since AK is a likely hand for hero. but then again what do i know, I dont play the 109s. just my 2 cents.

[lacky]

the math is taking into account your % of chips in play and using that to estamate your equity? Is that correct? If so it doesn't take into account that on average you should be able to menipulate the bubble situation to decrease the 2500 stack and grow your own. I have no idea how you would work that into the calculations though, other than to say if it's a close decision it needs to be considered.

BTW, I push, probably why 1st and 4th are my highest finishing positions, by lots.

Steve

[microbet]

ICM takes into account whenever you have a chip lead or not. It never takes into account whether you are better than your opponents. It doesn't do this when you start and are more than 30% ITM, nor when you are a middle short stack and don't give up and throw your chips away, nor when you are shorty on the bubble and notice that there is a bubble, nor when you are big stack on the bubble and pwn the middle stacks.

This is a complex issue and I certainly don't have it worked out, but my current thought is that the one situation listed where you opponent's mistakes are going to hurt you the most is when you are big stack trying to pwn and thus it is the least likely candidate for a situation where ICM undervalues your equity. (though perhaps it always undervalues your equity - in this case I think the aforementioned situation would not be the maximum undervalued)

[Degen]

before i read anything i'm gonna say

AUTO PUSH

[Double Down]

With a raise this big, I read it as he has a better than average hand but does not want to be reraised. A raise to 1100 from 300 won't mind if it goes heads up against a small stack all in, but it does not want a call nor a raise. I will see this play made a lot with ace rag or small pocket pair. It's correct to raise with these hands, yes? But wouldn't it be incorrect to call an all in from a large stack that would leave me at 1100 if I lost (and I probably would). Raising to 1100 feels like small pp, ace rag, or medium king, all of which would fold to a large all in.

Seeing as how the amount is close to the BB's stack, I see it as the button is saying, "Let me take on the small stack. I have a good enough hand to do it with." But it realizes its vulnerablility, so it doesn't want to be reraised. I see this play (and make it) a lot of the time, and in this situation, it will fold to a raise most of the time.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
With a raise this big, I read it as he has a better than average hand but does not want to be reraised. A raise to 1100 from 300 won't mind if it goes heads up against a small stack all in, but it does not want a call nor a raise. I will see this play made a lot with ace rag or small pocket pair. It's correct to raise with these hands, yes? But wouldn't it be incorrect to call an all in from a large stack that would leave me at 1100 if I lost (and I probably would). Raising to 1100 feels like small pp, ace rag, or medium king, all of which would fold to a large all in.

Seeing as how the amount is close to the BB's stack, I see it as the button is saying, "Let me take on the small stack. I have a good enough hand to do it with." But it realizes its vulnerablility, so it doesn't want to be reraised. I see this play (and make it) a lot of the time, and in this situation, it will fold to a raise most of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

not to be rude.. but if you are making this play and folding to a push a lot, i would be hard pressed to believe you are a winning poker player at ANY game. im calling in that spot with 23o if i made it 1100 and he shoved. i would never make it 1100 there.. but thats not the point. the point is, you are getting 3 to 1 on a call, so any good player needs to.

the argument i have been making for calling is for JUST the peope like you that dont understand proper poker. they will fold that K9 or whatever or A7 or whatever to a push, making AQ a profitable shove here. holla