Don't Get 4th! $109 - Page 8

The once and future king · #71 09-14-2005, 07:02 AM

I will quite happily extract equity from the second stack when in the SB. With those two small stacks around he is likely to be very passive. No one wants to go from penthouse to outhouse.

deathpotato · #72 09-14-2005, 07:11 AM

Ah, I've made a mistake, the 2nd stack will actually be going into the BB next hand, with you on the button. Silly me, I actually will go to bed after this one. I think that you're right that you will be able to make up any EV loss from pushing by stealing here. I mistakenly thought the 2nd stack would be SB to your BB, which would make it a fair bit harder to steal.

Unarmed · #73 09-14-2005, 08:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I F#&%in push. This guy folds 10-20% of the time. People are stupid. That's all you need to know. Seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this deep analysis.
No, really, I do.

We need to stop saying, oh he's getting 3-1 so he'll call.
The truth is (and we've all seen it) people make that laydown all the time. If Villain has exactly K9, seriously, how often do people think he lays down?
He was on a steal and he got "caught" by the second biggest stack. If he folds he has 2600. If he calls he has 1000.
I think 10-20% is actually low.
Am I that far off?

DO NOT support your answer with math. Delve into the mind of a player who raises 1100 with K9o here. He has no plan. What will his reaction be when his hand gets caught in the cookie jar?

Freudian · #74 09-14-2005, 08:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
DO NOT support your answer with math. Delve into the mind of a player who raises 1100 with K9o here. He has no plan. What will his reaction be when his hand gets caught in the cookie jar?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming something resembling sanity in the villain here, when he raises to 1100 he is saying to everyone and himself "If someone pushes here I have to call". That is the only reason for the size of the raise.

Assuming absense of sanity, the raise to 1100 could mean anything and his reaction to a push we can't predict.

At the lower limits I see strange bet sizes all the time. And very often they will call despite their hands being caught in the cookie jar. They don't seem to care that their T8s isn't all that good of a hand.

raptor517 · #75 09-14-2005, 01:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I F#&%in push. This guy folds 10-20% of the time. People are stupid. That's all you need to know. Seriously.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this deep analysis.
No, really, I do.

We need to stop saying, oh he's getting 3-1 so he'll call.
The truth is (and we've all seen it) people make that laydown all the time. If Villain has exactly K9, seriously, how often do people think he lays down?
He was on a steal and he got "caught" by the second biggest stack. If he folds he has 2600. If he calls he has 1000.
I think 10-20% is actually low.
Am I that far off?

DO NOT support your answer with math. Delve into the mind of a player who raises 1100 with K9o here. He has no plan. What will his reaction be when his hand gets caught in the cookie jar?

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks unarmed. apparently everyone has been ignoring the last 240982485 posts i made in this thread. of COURSE its -ev if he calls every time with every hand. thats not even a question. however, in donk terms, donk sees 1600 chips being bet back at him as a RERAISE. OOOOOOOHHHHHHH, donk thinks damn, he reraised SIXTEEN hundred more, my hand is not the best here, kachink, into hte muck. this definitely happens way way way more than most of the people arguing in this thread thinks it does. in a 215, im not shoving. 109 on down, i will shove. holla

ezmogee · #76 09-14-2005, 01:30 PM

I really dont think hes folding K9 here. The type of player that makes that sort of raise with K9 doesn't mind calling another 1200 to see a showdown.

Once again, I'm not saying that I NEVER push AQ here. I do...but doing so is dependent on the type of table I'm at. If the table is hyper aggressive with every pot being opened like this, I push AQ in a heartbeat. Here, however, the problem is that the raiser is the big stack and with that much invested will almost certainly call with K9. After all, he will rationalize that you might have 88, etc.

zambonidrivr · #77 09-14-2005, 01:36 PM

i hate tressel right now

raptor517 · #78 09-14-2005, 01:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The type of player that makes that sort of raise with K9 doesn't mind calling another 1200 to see a showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

its 1570, and you are wrong. hes EXACTLY the type of player that will fold K9 there. do you see why? holla

pooh74 · #79 09-14-2005, 01:55 PM

Who's folding AK here?

I am folding AQ bTW.

curtains · #80 09-14-2005, 02:38 PM

It's okay I made the caveat over and over that if the button folds too often, then pushing is ok. I just wouldn't want to bank on that here, and judging exactly what % of the time the button will fold is quite difficult.

I like to remain cautious in such spots because I will be able to make better decisions later,instead of assuming the button will fold 30%+, because really I have no idea.