Basic question - do I call?

top6 · #1 09-13-2005, 01:18 AM

$50 + 5 SNG on Stars.

I think this is an easy decision, but an occasional reality check is good. My read is that button is a tight, reasonable, solid player.

So, what should I do? Apologies if this is too easy - and maybe the fact that I'm even asking means I shouldn't be playing $50 + 5s.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) converter

Hero (t2285)
Button (t1970)
SB (t922)
BB (t1885)
UTG (t1783)
UTG+1 (t1235)
MP1 (t1280)
MP2 (t2140)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t100, 2 folds, Hero raises to t400, Button raises to t1970, 2 folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero ?????

MegaBet · #2 09-13-2005, 01:38 AM

Call? Yup.

unreal_nh · #3 09-13-2005, 01:47 AM

you're getting about 1.7 to 1.. probably a coinflip.. i think i'd probably call

top6 · #4 09-14-2005, 12:42 AM

that's what i thought. thanks.

MegaBet · #5 09-14-2005, 12:45 AM

[ QUOTE ]
that's what i thought. thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now you have to tell us what actually happened, so we can feel all warm inside at our correct decisions [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

top6 · #6 09-14-2005, 12:47 AM

he called with JJ, I hit a King, and won the tourney. feel warm!!!!

KramerTM · #7 09-14-2005, 12:54 AM

I call here. Though I don't think folding is the worst move in the world.

MegaBet · #8 09-14-2005, 01:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
he called with JJ, I hit a King, and won the tourney. feel warm!!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!

I STILL RULE !!!

#9 09-14-2005, 01:32 AM

I'm gonna ICM this and post the results even if they're uninterestig.

EV Fold: 13.93%
EV call and lose: 2.7% [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
EV call and win: 27.89% [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So, in order to make calling profitable, we need our chance to win (x) to satisfy (1-x)*2.7 + x*27.89 > 13.93. x > 42.08%. AKo vs JJ is 43.15%, so good call. What I find to be interesting is that it's pretty marginal. The tightest range against which you should call this is top 4% or 99+, AQs+, AKo. There, you have 43% equity, making it a marginal call. If your opponent is on the range. Drop out AQ, and this is a marginal fold.

So, for those of you who are saying call (and saying it confidently), are you assuming that AA or KK doesn't make this play or that AQ does?

#10 09-14-2005, 02:14 AM

You are risking 1570 to win 1970. You are getting the correct odds for a "race": AK vs. lower pair. Opponent may have AA or KK, but this is less likely than him having Ax lower or a stone cold bluff.

Call unless you are so much better tahn your opponents that you want to save your chips for a better situation.