Don't Get 4th! $109

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
Re: SNGing

Say you dump me in this spot with no read, and button raises to 1100. He's either a) an idiot on a stunned steal attempt, or b) a semi-intelligent player with an absolute monster. If a) you have FE pre-flop so push. If b) you're f*cked either way so push.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that breaking it down into those two possibilities is a bit simplistic.

Also, I don't think I have much FE preflop. If I push, he has to call ~1500 with to win ~3900. I don't feel like he's folding.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
sheesh. a 109 eh. theres a lot of donkeyballs in the 109s. meaning, people will in fact fold getting 3 to 1, because they dont wanna get knocked down to 1k chips. if i think there is even a slight chance hes folding, im shoving this all day. if i think theres zero chance hes folding.. its a lot closer, but ill still shove it most times. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

so are you saying you're willing to take the big $EV hit on this hand because you feel like you need to make a stand?

[Matt R.]

With no reads I would push, but it's really close. I tend to err on the side of aggression though, and the 1550 in the pot looks really nice to me. If he seems even slightly on the tight side though, I would fold without a second thought. So, it's pretty difficult for me to say what I would do without knowing the player at all.

[deathpotato]

What do you feel villain's range is here?

[Matt R.]

Just curious, what's the $EV hit assuming he will always call? Also, from his perspective, I think there's some merit in preserving chips here if he's raising with trash regardless of pot odds he's getting. I don't think you can say he will ALWAYS call if he's raising often. 2600 chips is a heckuva lot better than 1100 in this scenario for villain.

Anyway, do you know the ICM $EV numbers or are you just estimating?

[ezmogee]

His hand is likely weaker than yours because of his 3.5x BB raise. Were he looking to get action and bust a smaller stack, he'd more than likely raise it 2.5x or a simple 3x to 900.

The problem here is that with 1100 invested he's getting nearly 3:1 to call your allin. It's possible he cuts his losses and folds, but with that much in, he's probably calling you with 44. And why go to the coinflip when you're in such good shape?

I do think it's fairly read dependent, but my inclination here would be to fold. ESPECIALLY, if you know you can outplay the other two shorter stacks.

[Matt R.]

[ QUOTE ]
His hand is likely weaker than yours because of his 3.5x BB raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is necessarily true. I would expect to see a middle pair a lot with this size raise, as he doesn't really want someone to come over the top of him -- his hand is likely ahead, but not by enough to warrant risking so much of his stack. The raise size could just be to maximize his FE -- i.e. he's letting the blinds know he will call if re-raised.

But... he could just as easily have A8-AJ or KQ/KJ and be making the same raise. I would just expect to see middle pairs a lot too (and probably slightly more likely). That's why I think it's really difficult to make a decision in this instance with no reads on the player.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
assuming he has a brain he will be raising tons on hands on the button on the bubble. and you beat of coinflip alot of them

[/ QUOTE ]

when you get yourself in a coinflip with stacks that are shorter than you present, you cost yourself money in the long run.

[raaustge]

Why such a tight range? If hes smart he knows you are going to fold most hands because you dont want to mess with a big stack with those two other stacks still hanging around. He should be raising alot right?
This is really read dependent but if he is somewhat loose and has a big range of hands you put him on, would this be a good time to make a stand and increase your chips significantly and go for 1st place. You cant guarantee a fold into the money. What if short stack doubles up? Just a thought but i think that range is way too tight

[brimstone1]

It's all the "he should" and "you should" mentality that makes this a clear push for me, especially if you have seen him being aggressive as the leader.
You're pushing for value here, I'd put him on any two face cards, or even broadway+[censored] offsuit.

Of course he's going to turn over 77-AA, AK here sometimes. But I'm fairly sure thats not going to be the case 'most' of the time, which is what counts in the end, isnt it?

Somebody set me straight if I'm too off course please? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]