normal situation 215

[deathpotato]

I fold here pretty much automatically

[Jman28]

Again without looking at ICM, I might push Q9s here depending on my opponents. I assume most people disagree. No?

[Chaostracize]

How many hands until blinds go up?

I fold.

[BigHobo]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold here pretty much automatically

[/ QUOTE ]

[Maulik]

these kinds of marginal hands get me in trouble. I think this is one of the hands which you relucantly fold. you're better off folding this hand and waiting until you're bb prices you in rather than pushing. this hand is too easily dominated and you still have 4 "players" left to act.

[ilya]

The only queen-high I would push here is QJs I think.

If the blinds are going up next hand, though, I push the Q9o.

[good2cu]

I would fold Q9o in this spot even though I think it's real real close, far closer then everyone is making it out to be. Being this short we may not get any more shots at +EV moves. Also if both of our blinds get stolen(somewhat likly at the 215s),that leaves us 750 chips, so even if we double then we'd still only be back to 1400. I'm going to have to run some numbers but I think this is real close. At the 215s there is quite a few good players, and they are going to assume you are pushing here with a fairly wide range of hands, and adjust their calling ranges accordingly. Im thinking QJ+, K8+, Axs, A5o+, 44+ is a push here, but this range still might be too tight. We could go the rest of this tournament without seeing a +EV Move, and even if we see one we're probaly going to have lost a lot chips before it.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
The only queen-high I would push here is QJs I think.

If the blinds are going up next hand, though, I push the Q9o.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, I thought about this for awhile, I think I'm folding. It's definitely close.

[citanul]

some s+ga numbers to look at real quick

blinds 100/200

stacks starting from me going around:

1085, 2872, 1290, 1415, 3338

hand Q9o

if we put the first three guys on TT+, AQs+, AKo+ and the last guy on 44+, A7s+, A9o+, KJs+

push is +$16 (.8%)

if we leave the first 3 guys the same and put the big stack on:

22+, A2s+, A3o+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs

push is +$3.6, (.2%)

if each big stack is on that much larger calling range, it's -$11.9.

Q9s:

1st scenario: +$20
2nd scenario: +$9
3rd scenario: -$4.6

QJs:

3rd scenario: +$.76
2nd scenario: +$13.3
1st scenario: +$23.9

back to Q9o:

if all 4 players are on 22+, A2s+, A3o+, KTs+, KJo+, QJs
pushing loses $33.4

putting both big stacks on that calling range and the small stacks on 66+, ATs+, AJo+, loses $17.3

pushing QJs in the same spot loses $4.

I don't know exactly which one of these ranges I'm likely to put a random set of opponents on, but it's probably much more like the first two (profitable) scenarios than the others.

I think that people put a much larger than is correct disparity in their minds between hands like Q9o and QJs.

Anyways, I pushed here, in the game as it played, fwiw.

citanul

[SCfuji]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyways, I pushed here, in the game as it played, fwiw.

[/ QUOTE ]

hey citanul, the only thing that matters is if you won the hand.

fuji [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]