JT hand on 2/4 Party

[Munga30]

Betting the flop hoping the CO will raise seems like a pretty good idea to me, though the pot may be just a little small. Somebody set me straight, please.

[droolie]

I don't like it.

He should have folded the flop facing two cold and the spectre of possibly having to pay more for a gutshot and backdoor.

The turn he overrepresented his hand. He won't fold top pair often enough to make that +EV and he will wind up paying 3BB to showdown the 2nd best hand far too often. Basically he will make slightly better hands call him down and much better hand cap him.

If the C/R was designed to fold out CO and maximize our chance to win the pot I don't really like it. There has to be a decent chance we are ahead here and I doubt we are. Our outs aren't likley to be dirty in ways that a C/R will fold anything we need folded here. He's basically praying button is on a flush draw and a C/R will fold CO's overcards because if CO had anything that beat him he's not folding.

[Entity]

If I'm in MP2+, I'm raising preflop. I think the rest of the decisions are a lot closer than everyone is giving them credit for, but I will admit to having check-3bet a flop like this before, and having felt good about it afterward.

Rob

[@bsolute_luck]

that flop has gotta be closer decision than people are saying- of course we'd need reads. if Button is aggressive with less than TP or draws.

the pot size is messed up i think: it is 10.5SBs to the flop and hero is getting 14.5-2 (assuming CO calls) back to him. i don't understand what drawing hand Button could have other than A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], but let's figure he could have one:

OUTs: 1.5 BDFD, 3 outs for the 9 non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and i'm giving 1.5 outs for either J/T (figuring CO could have a better kicker with either): total: 6 need 7.5-1, getting 7:1

i guess the risk of being 3-bet here probably pushes this to a fold but figuring we're only short 1/2SB it's gotta be pretty close.

[B Dids]

The flop is close, I'm not sure it's a call I'd love the guy making if he's going to spew on the turn though.

I'm not sure what the turn does. You're not pushing a "bit too lose" button off of a hand here with that turn CR. Unless you can specifically put him on a flush draw I just don't see the point.

If you can put him on a flush draw, I agree that check/calling the river is best unless he's paying you off with something like ace high.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop is close, I'm not sure it's a call I'd love the guy making if he's going to spew on the turn though.

I'm not sure what the turn does. You're not pushing a "bit too lose" button off of a hand here with that turn CR. Unless you can specifically put him on a flush draw I just don't see the point.

If you can put him on a flush draw, I agree that check/calling the river is best unless he's paying you off with something like ace high.

[/ QUOTE ]

His hand isn't a binary Q-or-flush draw.

Rob

[B Dids]

Fine then [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

"If you can put him on a hand that will call the river but that a jack beats, bet. If you can't, induce the bluff by check calling".

Obviously doing this is hard vs. an unknown. Like I said elsewhere A- I think this is a Q most of the time B- I have a very hard time ever putting bad players on draws when they're agressive.

I guess given the chance that it's a flush draw with a non-Q part of the board, a bet isn't horrible, but I think the fact that it's a Q more often than not pushes me towards check/call. (although it's hard for me to really talk about the river in this situation when I wouldn't have ever played the turn like that, which obviously changes the river a lot).

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
I will admit to having check-3bet a flop like this before.

[/ QUOTE ]

people who do this are badass, since this move scares the [censored] out of good players.

[jason_t]

I still don't think I like any street. Chris?

[Alex/Mugaaz]

I'm sorry but this is misplayed on every street postflop. Every reason people have given to explain the rest is wrong because this is 2/4.