Proposed solution to perception of online poker being rigged

[scarr]

One thing that is keeping Online Poker from gaining more success is the perception some people get that it is rigged. The very thing that makes poker such an entertaining game (randomness), is one thing that keeps people away from it online. People consistantly question the fairness or randomness of the Online Poker games. Online Pokersites have implemented methods to calm their client's fears, but still some people remain suspicious. And some, once hit with that one bad beat, never return. I believe there is a way to calm this fear. Individual sites can do what they want with some success, but I think an industry wide solution would be the most effective.

Numerous Debates

For awhile now, there have been people, especially on rec.gambling.poker who are constantly claiming that poker sites are rigged. Their posts generate tons of discussion (possibly the reason why they post on the subject.) The responses to these flame-bait posts range from someone posting a bad beat to statistical analysis of poker hands dealt at a specific site. One post on www.twoplustwo.com showed a histogram of cards showing up in different positions on the board, clearly showing a random distribution of the board across thousands of hands, and removing all doubt of "action flops." But still people think that it is rigged and have constructed elaborate conspiracies to explain the bad beats they are dealt. And it is these bad beats "dealt more than their fair share", according to a typical skeptical player, which starts the debate over and over again. Most players fail to recognize that the bad beats, or the ones that defied the overwelming odds, are the ones you remember. No one remembers the many times when the hands turned out as the odds indicated they would. This is the main source of the perception of the rigged Online Pokersite.

Business Drivers

Underlying all the talk of poker being rigged are the motivations for the sites to rig the games. Some people claim the sites want to create situations where the players are more likely to bet. These are called "Action Flops". The more betting action, the more money goes into the pot, and the more rake the site takes in. Of course this doesn't work for tournaments, where a fixed rake in the form of an entry fee is taken out at the start of the tournament. But, the conspiracists have that covered too. Here is where the sites try to end the tournament as soon as possible. The sooner the tournament ends, the sooner someone starts another tournament, and pays more entry fees. There are also theories that you will be dealt bad cards after you withdraw some of your money from the site. Or that you are dealt better cards when you deposit money into a site. Of course, in reality this has more to do with bankroll psychology than with how the sites deal the cards.

The biggest catalyst for the consiracy theorists is the thought "if they can do it, they will". Meaning, it is so easy to stack the deck, deal the bad beats, and cover it up, they must be doing it. That is just a logical fallacy, which many fall for.

For all the business reasons the conspiracists can come up with for the sites being rigged, real business reasons actually do keep it them honest. First off, they make so much money off the players they have, they would not do anything which could potentionally lose a client. If you are stacking the deck, someone gets the bad beat, and someone wins. How do you decide? You want them both to continue play, and don't want to do anything to cause one of them to leave for the slightest reason. Secondly, there are many other ways to increase revenue without cheating. You can increase the rake limit or percentage rake. Or increase the entry fees, or decrease the number of small buy-in games. And the most important reason why a site would not cheat: your whole site could go under if word got out that you were actually stacking the decks. Why would a site risk this for such a small gain in revenue?

Efforts by poker sites to alleviate concern of it's clients

Many of the sites are aware of their customers concerns and have gone to great lengths to calm their fears. Many have published their algorithms, or have published independent verification of their algorithm. Some of the more elaborate detective work has gone into the effort to identify collusion on the sites. Sites can and do use all the info available to them to indentify people who are working together to take money from they legitimate clients. Most colluders are so bad at it, they don't survive long enough to get caught. But it is good to know the sites are looking out for it.

Sites will also do things like show all hands at showdown. These hands are kind of hidden, in that you have to dig up the hand history to see them, but if you are suspicious of some play, you can see at least what hands made it to showdown. It is a small effort, but can be helpful for someone who actually cares.

Poker sites have recognized there is a trust/integrity problem in the industry, and have gone to great lengths to address the problem, but still people think their bad beat was part of some elaborate scheme and are still convinced Online Poker is rigged. Aside from the fact that these people still continue to play while convinced it is rigged, there is a solution which will remove all fears. It is called Verifiable Card Decks.

Proposal - Verifiable Card Decks

Verifiable card decks are pre-shuffled sequence of cards provided to an Online Pokersite by an independent organization. When a site deals a hand of poker, it acquires a pre-shuffled deck from this site. The deck comes with a unique identifier and an expiration date, which only the people at the table have access to. The cards are dealt in sequence, the same way for all games of the same type across all sites. At the end of the hand, any player at the table, using the unique deck identifier, can ask the independent organization what the exact sequence was for the cards in the deck used for that hand. The poker sites will not deal the deck after the expiration date. The player could only see the actual deck contents after the deck has expired.

There are a few benefits to this solution. The independent organization removes the "action flops" and "quicker games" reasons because the deck is shuffled independent of the knowledge of how many players, what the stack sizes are or even what game the cards are being dealt for. Also, if many sites use the same source for their decks, no one site could be perceived as "less random" then the others.

Another benefit is that it can calm the collusion fears. Since you as a player at the table can see all hands dealt to all players, you can verify that you were not the victim of collusion. If you do suspect collusion, you can take it up with the poker site. As mentioned above most sites already provide a small view into this possible collusion, by allowing you to see the cards of anyone who made it to the showdown. This would open it up to being able to see all the hole cards after the fact.

Industry Resistance

There are couple of reasons why a site would not want to take advantage of the Verifiable Card Decks. First, the site is dependent on card decks coming from another computer on the internet. Even if the independent organization had multiple servers, it might just be too risky to have the main driver of your software out of your control.

Another point of resistance may involve the privacy concerns of their clients. Some clients may not want other people to know every hand they were dealt at the table. Providing the hand info on a delayed basis, could help here. If privacy is a concern, sites could also allow players to change their screen name anytime (not within a game) so that other people will not be able to track a person's playing tendencies over multiple sessions. It would also follow that people who were colluding would be the ones who would be most concerned about sharing their hand info.

In summary, there is still a perception that Online Pokersites are rigged, despite efforts by the sites to calm these fears. There needs to be an industry wide solution to the problem inorder to take the industry to the next level. Verifiable Card Decks is a solution, if implemented industry wide, hopefully through an independent non-profit organization, can provide a foundation which will remove all doubts about the integrety their Online Pokersite.

Bill Gillock

[MarkGritter]

A couple thoughts. This is an interesting idea, but I don't think it's a solution.

First, there is nothing in your proposal to ensure that all decks received from the trusted party actually get used. This allows an unethical site to pick-and-choose from the valid decks they receive in order to perform whatever rigging they want. This would be somewhat hard to catch without a comprehensive audit. Even complete usage of all decks generated does not prevent some of the 'attacks' that the more paranoid are convinced happen.

Second, the poker sites would be exposing themselves to increased risk. A fairly large amount of data is needed each day to deal the hands; an interruption in their communication with the outside deck generators would be disastrous. (Not that poker sites don't go down anyway, but...) The theft or manipulation of this data could be a significant risk as well. It is far safer and more robust to generate entropy locally.

[Eder]

I think poker sites should rig the cards so that best 2 starting cards always win so there is never a bad beat. Public confidence is sure to follow.

[dlk9s]

I also think there is still the perception, however inaccurate it may be, that because the online poker rooms are a) involved in gambling, b) operate outside of the U.S., and c) online, that they are all up to no good.

After all, gambling is a sin, right? Decent, moral, people don't gamble. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

And countries that are not the U.S. don't have laws. Everyone in Costa Rica, Gibraltar, etc., live their lives without ethics and make it their mission to steal people's money. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Sure, there may be some shady sites out there (I have no evidence or knowledge of any at this time), but people need to remember that these are businesses. They are not three-card monte games on the street corner.

[Sniper]

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One thing that is keeping Online Poker from gaining more success is the perception some people get that it is rigged.

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There are millions of people playing online poker... the number is expected to rise to 6+ million by 2006... the number of people who are not playing because they think poker is rigged, is very small!

[LethalRose]

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the number is expected to rise to 6+ million

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care to back this up?

[Sniper]

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care to back this up?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pulled the number out of an analysts report on the industry. Using the word "projected", instead of "expected" may have made more sense. I stand by the rest of my comment.

[BradleyT]

Many posters here do 10x better job of predicting the flow of online poker than the analysts do.

If the growth is so high, why has party been stuck at 70-80K since April?

[scarr]

[ QUOTE ]

First, there is nothing in your proposal to ensure that all decks received from the trusted party actually get used. This allows an unethical site to pick-and-choose from the valid decks they receive in order to perform whatever rigging they want.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. When a request is made for a deck, the pokersite can supply the game number for which it will use the deck. Query of the deck contents later on the independent site would show which game number it was requested for.

[ QUOTE ]
This would be somewhat hard to catch without a comprehensive audit. Even complete usage of all decks generated does not prevent some of the 'attacks' that the more paranoid are convinced happen.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I see what you mean, the sites could use the deck for what ever game it decided fit the 'attack'. Reporting the requested game number would help. Of course the site would only issue one deck for a game.

The expiration date was really just to keep people from seeing folded hands while a tourney is still in progress.

[ QUOTE ]
Second, the poker sites would be exposing themselves to increased risk. A fairly large amount of data is needed each day to deal the hands; an interruption in their communication with the outside deck generators would be disastrous. (Not that poker sites don't go down anyway, but...)

[/ QUOTE ]

They could implement a redundant network, or even a backup local deck server maintained by the independent organization.

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The theft or manipulation of this data could be a significant risk as well. It is far safer and more robust to generate entropy locally.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is commonly handled via a Secure Socket Layer, or most commonly implememted as https.

Thanks for the thoughtful response.

[scarr]

[ QUOTE ]
There are millions of people playing online poker... the number is expected to rise to 6+ million by 2006... the number of people who are not playing because they think poker is rigged, is very small!

[/ QUOTE ]

Those kinds of numbers reflect number of people with accounts with poker sites. Sure to grow as it is most likely cummulative, and does not reflect people playing regularly. Those market analysts are just promoting a group of stocks. They would never mention this problem with the industry.

I personally know about a dozen people who play poker regularly, but do not trust online sites.

As someone else mentioned, the fact that these sites have to operate offshore, does cause suspicion, or lack of trust. And this brings up an interesting question. Can this independent site serve up decks of cards from within the U.S. without violating interstate gambling laws?