TT - when waiting to raise doesn't protect your hand

You make very good points. However I think what you guys are potentially missing is that in this hand, on the flop, our equity edge is already huge. So it's not going up that much on the turn. I also think it's getting checked to you a lot on the turn and you might not be able to put a raise in.

In a pot that's 5-6 handed our equity edge on the flop is not going to be as big b/c basically everyone is going to have some kind of draw that beats us. And it's going to be bet to you like 100% of the time on the turn.

[Shillx]

Raise now. Wait with jacks. The problem with waiting is that you will often times have to just call when a six or 9-ball falls since you have a redraw to a straight and it is likely to fill an OESD.

In general you should wait to raise on boards that have a lot of straight draws since they are the real equity killers. Hands like JT pick up a straight draw (OESD and gutterball) almost one time in four while suited cards hit a flush draw just about 11% of the time.

Brad

[MrWookie47]

This is a good hand to post.

Here are the important ideas:
<ul type="square">[*]We probably have the best hand now. [*]We can't expect to be able to protect against just about anything even if we wait for the turn. (We can never protect against flush draws and OESD's).[*]If a favorable card comes on the turn, our equity edge will be huge (much bigger than it currently is), but there are a lot of cards that could wreck us.[/list]
Points 1 and 2 argue for raising now, whereas point 3 argues for waiting. Now, the question is, what are the favorable cards that will come? Any T is awesome, any non-[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 is great. That's 5 cards. I'd say the next most favorable cards would be a non-[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9's, which, even if they give someone a straight, they give us a redraw. The non-spade 5's aren't too bad to see either, since 64 is an unlikely hand. For every other card in the deck, there are just degrees of unfavorability. Fours and sixes complete an OESD's, but they're not too scary. Naturally J &gt;&gt; Q &gt; K &gt;&gt; A (the J gives us a redraw in addition to being the least scary overcard), just as 3 &gt; 7 &gt;&gt; 8, but I wouldn't be too excited about seeing any of those cards. Any spade is of course bad news.

Here's my thinking. In situations like these where our relative position makes it impossible to protect what may be the best hand now, if every card that can come is a scare card, then we'll want to call and get to showdown cheaply. If there are few scare cards, we'll want to raise now for value. In between these extremes is tricky. If there numbers of scare cards and the numbers of safe cards are about equal, or maybe a few more safe cards, then waiting for the turn is better where we can exploit a much larger equity edge with larger bets. If there are instead a fair number fewer safe cards than scare cards, then raising the flop may return to being a better plan. Why? Because it makes the turn easier to play. If you raise now and someone shows strength on the turn when a scare card drops, you can be relatively certain that the scare card helped that person. Instead, if the field plays possum, you can be fairly sure you have the best hand.

On this hand, I count about 20 cards that I'd consider somewhat safe, and there are 47 left in the deck. I'm leaning towards raising now. Give me JJ, and waiting looks like the superior plan.

[dvashun]

The only way TT has a huge equity with this flop is if you put your opponent on nothing, not even a draw. Like I said in my previous post, even if you put your opponents on the worst draws they likely have TT is not the favorite. Besides,
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If the turn card is safe, you're going to wish you could raise the turn. Again, this is true regardless of what you would have done in response to a scary turn.

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This is straight out of the Two Overpair Hands section of SSHE. Call and if you're still good on the turn, raise to reflect your bigger equity edge.

[smoovee]

ok so i would estimate that your equity is around 50% (accounting for 8 spades and 2 pair/trips, overcards or a gutshot). your contributing 33%, and waiting for a safe turn raises your equity to nearly 70%. given that you have a nice edge on the flop and the chances of it getting checked across on the turn, i would raise the flop. compared to the example in SSHE, it got raised already so there is that uncertainty of it getting bet again on the turn in this. does he bet draws? if the turn doesnt look so good, well it might get checked to you the raiser, and have the option of getting a cheap showdown.

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This is straight out of the Two Overpair Hands section of SSHE. Call and if you're still good on the turn, raise to reflect your bigger equity edge.

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This is NOT straight out of the Two Overpair Hands section of SSHE. Look at the hands and compare them. Read Wookies and smoovee's posts at the bottom. Hey, it might or might not be best to wait for turn, depending on reads. But we likely have a monstrous equity edge on the flop, Give someone the ace high flush draw and the other guy k8, and we still have 40% edge, and most of the time we are in much better shape then that.

[Paxosmotic]

There is more value in raising his turn bet and trapping everyone for two. I like BBs.

[gharp]

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The problem with waiting is that you will often times have to just call when a six or 9-ball falls since you have a redraw to a straight and it is likely to fill an OESD.

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I'm having a hard time seeing why this is a problem. When the 6/9 falls and the action gets heavy, I'll be glad I didn't raise the flop.

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In general you should wait to raise on boards that have a lot of straight draws since they are the real equity killers.

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I'm confused here too -- isn't this one of those boards?


This was a great hand to post, Boz -- I think this is a really interesting decision. I really don't know what the right answer is -- one thing I see that separates this from the SSHE overpair hands is that there are only 2 other guys in the hand (instead of 4). So when an overcard falls, I'm not totally convinced that I'm beat. This seems to argue for raising the flop, but I like jrz's reasoning for the turn raise too.

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one thing I see that separates this from the SSHE overpair hands is that there are only 2 other guys in the hand (instead of 4).

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Thank you. I hate when people spend the time to try to really think about a hand and people lazily reply with "This is straight out of the Two Overpair Hands section of SSHE." Not only b/c it's [censored] not, but b/c the only way you're going to learn and teach others is to try to analzye the subtlties of each hand and decide what the best play is.