Implied odds

[Link774]

UTG+1: 34/3.7/.5
MP2: No read
CO: 35/5/.56

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, Hero...

Are the implied odds great enough to make this call with the risk of being reraised (or capped)? If you would call why and what would tip it to a fold? If you would fold why and what would tip it to a call?

You are 11:1 chance of making a fullhouse, so best case if you only have to call two cold, you will be getting a little better than 7:1 on your call. That gets a lot worse if the turn is capped. So you'd have to make up 4 bets on the river if you improve.

But I think implied odds are only a part of the story. To continue with this hand you have to feel that there is a good chance that you currently have the best hand.

[_Kevin_]

Are you ahead or behind is the first question? CO calling 2 cold on the flop and 2 betting the turn means I don't think so (he's very passive). You could be drawing dead (against QT [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]). If you're still drawing live, you're drawing to 4 outs. You need 10.5:1 to make the call (you're getting 12.5:2 assuming it isn't raised). Neither player looks to be a maniac. I'd fold. The only way I'd call is if I had reads that said they were maniacs and there was a reasonable chance I was still ahead.

[MrWookie47]

I 3bet that flop. On the turn, you'll have to make up 3-4 BB on the river if you call, but that assumes no further action. If things heat up, it's sad times. I think you can fold this against these players.

[Link774]

[ QUOTE ]
You are 11:1 chance of making a fullhouse, so best case if you only have to call two cold, you will be getting a little better than 7:1 on your call. That gets a lot worse if the turn is capped. So you'd have to make up 4 bets on the river if you improve.

But I think implied odds are only a part of the story. To continue with this hand you have to feel that there is a good chance that you currently have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it is very likely that I am ahead at this point. If I make my boat, I can probably make up the 4 bets, but if the action gets capped I'm acually getting more like 5.1:1, if all 3 villans stay in. If MP2 drops out to a 3-bet I'd be getting 4.3:1, so worst case I'd need to make up 7 bets between 2 other people, or 6 bets between three other people.

So I'm probably in good shape the raising stops here. If it is capped and MP2 folds I need the river to be capped as well when I hit my draw, otherwise a 3-bet river would probably suffice. I guess it comes down to how agressive I think these opponents would be with a flush when a full house is likely. It seems unlikely that they would not cap this street and then cap the river, though they might cap this street and then not cap the river.