Big stacks, too weak with a set?

Muisyle · #1 09-11-2005, 02:14 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

CO ($226.35)
Button ($50.25)
SB ($50.65)
BB ($246.70)
Hero ($140.25)
MP ($49.65)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, CO raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero calls $2.50.

Flop: ($6.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $5, CO calls $5.

Turn: ($16.75) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $10, CO raises to $20, Hero calls $10.

River: ($56.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $30, Hero calls $30.

Final Pot: $116.75

Villain is 24/10.3/1.3 through 200 hands. His preflop raise could be a lot of things, AA-TT, AK down to maybe KJs, probably in the higher range though. We've been mostly avoiding each other and taking turns stacking the BB (who has been constantly stacking MP to stay up big). Ok so I hit my hand, but his flat call concerns me. He knows I wouldn't bet into him without something good. It's hard for me to define his hand here, he could be on any kind of draw like KQs, AKs, but then with his agression numbers he could easily be slowplaying kings, jacks, KJ, AQ for the flopped nuts.

So I hit the full on the turn. That's great if he was on a draw or had AQ but it doesn't really garuantee that I have the best hand. His minraise concerns me greatly here. This isn't a random donk minraise, he's definitely got something to minraise me after I've lead into him twice. A higher full or quads seems likey to me, but he could still have AQ maybe AJ? I think I would lose him here with a rereraise, if I have him beat that is, so I flat call.

I only check the river because I know he will bet after raising the turn. If I thought there was the slightest chance he would check behind I would bet out again and probably call a raise that wasn't too obscene. So I check, he bets what is either a value bet or a blocking bet, I think about raising but just call.

How is this line? Am I losing value here? Who bets or raises this river?

orange · #2 09-11-2005, 03:50 AM

You are losing value here IMO. I would full pot flop, 3/4 pot the turn. If he raises, call the turn and either:
-lead the river for a 2/3 potsize bet
or c/r all in the river given reads.