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#1
08-07-2002, 01:28 PM
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I don\'t see why everyone is saying 100%....
Why would you necessarily go broke in the long run? I would agree with all of you if this was a -EV game, but it isn't. If the answer is 100%, every blackjack card counter, +EV VP player, and sports better should give up and go home. There is a certain risk of ruin involved in this (and a high one with such a small bankroll), but I just can't see how you will inevitably go broke 100% of the time. All comments (read as: flames) are welcome. -- Homer 
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#2
08-07-2002, 04:08 PM
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Re: I don\'t see why everyone is saying 100%....
But if you have to play _forever_ sooner or later you'll have a swing that is big enough to eat your entire bankroll... I think... Sincerely, Andreas
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#3
08-07-2002, 04:36 PM
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I didn\'t say 100%
It will never be 100% as long as you have an edge on every play. It approaches 100% when your bankroll is 1 bet and your edge is close to even. It goes down exponentially as your bankroll increases (doubling bankroll squares risk of ruin). The games you mention are more difficult to analyze due to variable bets, variable payouts, and bets when your ev is negative. Still, if you have an overall edge, it is always possible to make your risk of ruin as small as you want by having a large enough bankroll relative to your bet size.
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