LO8 Top Two + Draw

Sean D · #1 09-05-2005, 08:48 PM

How does this look? With the PF raise, I figured someone to have a wheel, but with a bunch of outs for the high half, I think calling was correct. Thoughts?

Party Poker (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls, MP3 raises , BB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP2 bets , MP3 calls, BB calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets , BB calls, Hero folds.

Edit: Man I am running so bad tonight. Brick after brick.

Party Poker (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP1 calls, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, MP1 calls, Button caps, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, Button raises, Hero raises, MP1 calls, Button calls.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, Button calls.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, Button checks.

Ugh.

GooperMC · #2 09-06-2005, 10:05 AM

For the first hand I don't usually draw to the high only 1/2 of the pot however you have a ton of outs.

Flop:
There are 13SB in the pot and you have to call 1 while closing the betting. You have 8 flush outs and 4 boat outs. You are going to hit an out better then 1:3 and you are getting 13:1 odds. Since you are only drawing for 1/2 the pot your actual pot odds are around 5.5:1 so I would call.

Turn:
Now you are only getting 8:1 odds and you are not closing the betting. To make matters worse that turn means that your boat outs are no longer to top boat and the bettor on the last round is still to act. You are still getting better then 3:1 to hit something but your new pot odds are around 3.5:1. It is close but because the better from the last round is still to act and your boat outs just got a little scary I would fold now.

For the second hand:
Missing a huge draw always sucks but even a huge draw that like is going to miss around 1 time in 3 (that is a complete WAG but it should be in the ballpark)

Sean D · #3 09-09-2005, 03:21 AM

Thanks for the input Gooper. Its just tough for me to fold a hand which has so much potential. I forgot to mention that a two would also give me part of the low pot, which I guess is worth something. I actually improved my hand on the turn, but I see that might have been the time to fold.

Buzz · #4 09-09-2005, 06:49 AM

Hi Sean - Both hands are similar. You have a good enough starting hand to see the flop in each case, you catch a piece of the flop, not exactly ideal, but enough to continue in each case - and then you catch brick, brick on the turn and river.

You played fine. Nobody can win when it happens that they are dealt a playable starting hand, see the flop, get enough of the flop to continue, and then catch brick, brick on the turn and river.

In my humble opinion, you can raise before the flop or not with either hand. Hand #2 is the better starting hand of the two, but they're both very playable. In other words, I'd want to see the flop with either hand. Whether or not I raised in either case would depend on the effect I thought raising would have on my opponents.

Even though MP3 raised before the flop in hand #1, I'd tend to directly bet the flop into MP3, rather than checking (as you did). I don't fault you for checking, but I think a direct bet is a better play for a variety of reasons, even if you think you might get raised. And then I probably pay off on the river, rather than folding on hand #1. I have a friend who plays in our weekly private dealers choice limit-game who claims, "The last bet is the cheapest." You do have two pair and a live ace and I think there's enough in the pot for you to call a single bet on the river. I agree things look bleak, but might be nobody has a wheel. In my own mind, it's close enough so that I don't fault you for folding to the bet.

On hand #2, I think you have favorable odds to initiate fresh money into the pot even after the unfavorable turn card. You still like more river cards than you don't like, and most are for a very possible scooper or 3/4. Therefore I like your bet on the third betting round in hand #2, even though things didn't work out for you this time. Then on the river, you have completely no chance for anything and you correctly fold.

Happened to me yesterday too, if that makes you feel any better. I kept having nice draws and not catching. Or I'd have the nut flush on the turn only to have the board pair on the river, making an opponent a full house. Over and over, it seemed. Once in a while I'd get a nice scooper, but not enough. You're going to lose money when that happens. No way around it.

Buzz

Mendacious · #5 09-09-2005, 11:21 AM

First hand.

That is a NASTY one. You even have outs for the nut low. I think there is very low rate of return for playing this. You need the 2 of diamonds and some capped betting to really make out here. I see playing this as slightly +EV under the best circumstances where nobody folds. If somebody folds and you brick the turn it is -EV.

Chamonyx · #6 09-09-2005, 03:42 PM

"Never (pay to) draw at half the pot" is not a bad discipline to practice". The you have think to find a reason to call, rather than finding a reason to fold.

Second hand: shame!

Vee Quiva · #7 09-09-2005, 03:50 PM

In the first hand when MP3 (original preflop raiser) only calls instead of raising. Doesn't that imply that he does not have the wheel?

It seems like if someone has A2, you're screwed but if not, you're in pretty good shape and you still have a ton of outs for 1/2 the pot and 4 twos for the low.

Alchemist · #8 09-09-2005, 04:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On hand #2, I think you have favorable odds to initiate fresh money into the pot even after the unfavorable turn card. You still like more river cards than you don't like, and most are for a very possible scooper or 3/4. Therefore I like your bet on the third betting round in hand #2, even though things didn't work out for you this time. Then on the river, you have completely no chance for anything and you correctly fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you can make an argument for betting the river in order to get your opponents to fold. Hero has shown strength the whole way through and I think the Turn bet is key here. For all his opponents know, Hero could have A23Q or A355, etc.

With the button raising pre-flop and the flop and MP1 tagging along, there's a good chance they've got good low-oriented hands as well. They also didn't raise the Turn. Button has A23x maybe?

Once the river prevents low, why not fire out another bet? It's the only chance of winning the pot which has gotten quite big now. You can safely fold to a raise but I think it's worth taking a stab at. Imagine you're the button with A234 and the BB has fired bets on every round. Would you call that river bet when you also have nothing?