Pop quiz

[detruncate]

I'm busting out sick math skillz. Watch out all you 6th graders. I'm nipping at your heels.

If... "You decide it'll probably take 2 pair to win. The pot is just big enough that, with your implied odds, you can barely call if you plan to fold unimproved. You are getting the proper odds to draw, but just barely."

Then... the pot has to be 6.5:7.5:1 depending on whether we're basing our "proper odds to draw" on getting 2 bets on the river or 1 (and ignoring rake). Our 5 out draw = 8.2:1, which translates to 10.87% equity.

If... the pot is 6.5-7.5 BB and when "you call the turn, you decide that you're going to be forced to call a river bet unimproved."

Then... our odds of winning UI have to be at least 7.5:2, which gives us 21.05% equity.

Therefore... our total equity = (at least) 30.88%. Folding would be a major mistake.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Then... our odds of winning UI have to be at least 7.5:2, which gives us 21.05% equity.


[/ QUOTE ]
This is incorrect. You make your call on the river based on the pot odds at that time. If there are 7 bets in the pot when you have to make your turn decision (based on the midpoint between your 6.5 and 7.5), then there will be 9 bets in the pot when you have to make your river decision. You only need to win 10% of the time to make calling the river correct.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm busting out sick math skillz. Watch out all you 6th graders. I'm nipping at your heels.

If... "You decide it'll probably take 2 pair to win. The pot is just big enough that, with your implied odds, you can barely call if you plan to fold unimproved. You are getting the proper odds to draw, but just barely."

Then... the pot has to be 6.5:7.5:1 depending on whether we're basing our "proper odds to draw" on getting 2 bets on the river or 1 (and ignoring rake). Our 5 out draw = 8.2:1, which translates to 10.87% equity.

If... the pot is 6.5-7.5 BB and when "you call the turn, you decide that you're going to be forced to call a river bet unimproved."

Then... our odds of winning UI have to be at least 7.5:2, which gives us 21.05% equity.

Therefore... our total equity = (at least) 30.88%. Folding would be a major mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think our odds of winning unimproved are anywhere near this good. (We have the odds to call unimproved on the river, but we're not calling a double bet on that street.)

You've set up a situation where we should call down even if we had no chance to improve.

The way the original problem is set up, calling the turn and then calling the river unimproved is +EV, but just barely.

So, although calling is best, folding is not actually a major mistake.