My least favourite hand: AKs

[zkzkz]

I think I've lost more chips with AKs than any other hand. It's so seductive but leaves you heart broken more often than not.

The abbreviated hand was: I was nearly on the bubble in a MTT with 88 people left, top 70 got paid. I had 10.7k or just over 13x the big blind. Probably just barely enough to limp into the money.

blinds are 400/800. UTG limps, UTG+1 raises to 1700. If I call I will have 9000 left and 5400 in the pot, so I figure I'm stuck and may as well push. UTG+1 calls and shows AA. I get knocked out.

Should I have considered folding AKs to a 2xbb raise there?
Is this a "bubble" situation?

Or was I just unlucky and favoured enough over most of the hands that could raise that it was worth taking the risk he would have aces?

[kevkev60614]

How long until the blinds increase, how many chips does UTG+1 have, and do you have any reads on anyone, especially UTG+1?

[nightlyraver]

I think that you need to realize a few things: First, if you play a tourney "to limp into the money" you are playing the wrong game. Second, you have an M<10 so you need to change how you play. Third, and most important, you need to see the difference between being the first raiser and reraising. Without a read, I'm actually folding AK once the pot has already been opened when my stack is at your size. You pointed it out yourself - you're stuck with the hand if you play it. When I know that I'm stuck with a hand, I want to be the one to make the first raise unless I'm holding a big pair OR I'm so short stacked that I just need to run with it.

With your size stack you should wait until you can be the first raiser. The cards matter MUCH less. I would have prefered pushing all-in with T9s after 5 people folded in front of me rather that reraising all-in after UTG opened the pot.

Oh yeah, early players typically make small raises with big hands when stacks are short. This is what we call a tell.

[fnurt]

I think you owe me a dollar for this post. There is absolutely nothing wrong with pushing AKs here, and it beats the hell out of folding into the money.

[Superfluous Man]

[ QUOTE ]

With your size stack you should wait until you can be the first raiser. The cards matter MUCH less. I would have prefered pushing all-in with T9s after 5 people folded in front of me rather that reraising all-in after UTG opened the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree. I'd rather get my money in here when I'm almost certainly ahead of his opening range. He may well be a donk and call with AQ or AJ here. Or he could be a nit and fold something like 88. It's hard to tell without reads, but against the typical MTT denizen, you're well ahead.

I'd even take a coinflip with the overlay the blinds give me, especially because if I win the coinflip, I'm a monster stack that can ream people on the fast-approaching bubble. It's just bad luck the OP ran into aces.

[ QUOTE ]

Oh yeah, early players typically make small raises with big hands when stacks are short. This is what we call a tell.


[/ QUOTE ]
Easy for you to say this when you've seen the results. Early players also typically make small raises with hands AKs crushes because they're donks. How are we to tell if that is the situation here?

You push the AK, and can cry that he was dealt AA out of the 3 remaining possible ways for AA to be dealt. It happens half as often as KK running into AA. Its bad "luck", but you don't fold AK at this spot, and you push it to maximize its value. If this is live, don't tip the dealer unless you catch the straight / flush~

[nightlyraver]

Remember that Villian was not the first in the pot - we still have UTG in this pot as well. Stack sizes really are important in this analysis, but it looks to me like UTG+1 REALLY wants a call. I'm severely discounting big-ace hands in this spot since the smallish raise really doesn't make sense. I'm also discounting middle pairs for similar reasons. Without reading too much into Villian's actions, I'm putting his most likely range on AA-QQ and not really much else - in all likelyhood.

Again, the absense of stack sizes hurts our analysis. More importabtly, we don't know how Villian has been raising in the past. If he makes small raises with speculative hands, then yes, I'm pushing in a hearbeat. However, I'm giving credit here for a good hand that wants a call unless I have evidence to suggest the contrary.