passively played str8

silkyslim · #1 09-08-2005, 12:58 PM

Both villians unknown. On the flop I have an open ender, I was going to raise for a free card but MP1 did it first. I cold called getting 4-1. Should I have folded given the 2 flush? I think this is fine since my ace mght be good. I hit it on the turn, but its 3 flushed. I figure raising would knock UTG out who is probably drawing slim to us, and is padding the pot. Same reasoning on the river. What do u think?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, Hero (poster) checks, 2 folds, BB checks.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
BB checks, UTG bets, MP1 raises, MP2 folds, Hero calls, BB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.75 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, UTG calls.

River: (8.75 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP1 bets, Hero calls, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 11.75 BB

ricdaman · #2 09-08-2005, 01:08 PM

Think one of these 5 players is on a flush draw on this flop? You have 6 outs - not 8 (7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] aren't outs since they complete the flush). Furthermore, even if you do make your straight on the turn, you might still get rivered by that flush. Of the 2/3 times a flush does not come, you'll hit your straight about 1/4 times. That means you'll win about (1/4 x 2/3) 1/12 times (not counting your A as an out). Do you have pot ods to call with an 8% chance of winning? I say no.

TemetNosce · #3 09-08-2005, 01:18 PM

Agreed. With this type of flop, an Ace out is basically worthless. With six good non-Heart outs, you are just under 7:1 to hit, pot is offering just under 4:1. Right there is enough to fold, without considering the redraws issue.

silkyslim · #4 09-08-2005, 01:28 PM

can u comment about the turn and river given i called the flop?

droolie · #5 09-08-2005, 01:42 PM

I like raising the turn here. You're likely to be ahead but vulnerable to any heart hitting the river. I say make em pay to draw out on you and possibly even get UTG to fold a low heart. If you get UTG to fold and 3-bet by MP1 call it down and pray he's overplaying a set. This would suck but I think you'er ahead enough here to have value in a turn raise.

I don't like raising the river because you will be reraised by flushes and UTG will likely fold hands you beat. Go for the over call there.

ricdaman · #6 09-08-2005, 04:39 PM

There's a big chance you are behind, but you can't fold a straight. I would cold-call a single bet on the turn and river, but fold to a raise.

W. Deranged · #7 09-08-2005, 05:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Think one of these 5 players is on a flush draw on this flop? You have 6 outs - not 8 (7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] aren't outs since they complete the flush). Furthermore, even if you do make your straight on the turn, you might still get rivered by that flush. Of the 2/3 times a flush does not come, you'll hit your straight about 1/4 times. That means you'll win about (1/4 x 2/3) 1/12 times (not counting your A as an out). Do you have pot ods to call with an 8% chance of winning? I say no.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, this reply is a trainwreck. And I mean that in the nicest possible way.

1. You need to get past the tight-weak point where you automatically assume that any possible flush draw is in play. Realize that no one has to have two hearts here, and a very significant amount of time our hero has 8 pure straight outs. It's better to think of the straight outs as "discounted," probably to about 7 outs, instead of simply assuming that 6 outs is all hero could have. (We should also discount a bit because here may chop here often... it may well be right to say here has 6 outs on average, but it's not because there is "always a flush draw.")

2. It's too tight to assume our A will never be an out. Sometimes it will! In fact, we may be able to count our A's as as many as 1.5-2 outs on average, which are meaningful. One thing hero should in fact be thinking very hard about is whether his flop play could help to assure that his A's actually are outs.

3. (1/4) x (2/3) = 1/6, not 1/12. So hero only needs to be getting 5 to 1 from the pot.

A better thing to say might be that hero has on average about 7.5 outs, including discounted straight outs and As. With that many outs, hero is in fact often going to the river with this hand.

callmedonnie · #8 09-08-2005, 06:49 PM

I fold the flop because of those 2 unclean outs which make your effective odds 7 to 1 on account of 6 outs, not the 8 usual ones.

However, on the turn I tend to raise because you might have the best hand, and I don't want someone holding a single heart four flushing me without paying.

KDawgCometh · #9 09-08-2005, 07:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]

3. (1/4) x (2/3) = 1/6, not 1/12. So hero only needs to be getting 5 to 1 from the pot.

A better thing to say might be that hero has on average about 7.5 outs, including discounted straight outs and As. With that many outs, hero is in fact often going to the river with this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

which also leads me towards a pure call on the flop, cause we can expect to make up any bets that we lose on the flop for when we hit on the hand. If there were some more players in this hand I think a three bet might not be bad, cause we can also semi-factor in our ace outs for probably a .5 out

benkath1 · #10 09-08-2005, 11:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I fold the flop because of those 2 unclean outs which make your effective odds 7 to 1 on account of 6 outs, not the 8 usual ones.

However, on the turn I tend to raise because you might have the best hand, and I don't want someone holding a single heart four flushing me without paying.

[/ QUOTE ]

This doesn't make any sense to me. You want to fold the flop fearing hearts, but when you hit your hand with a heart you want to raise? Isn't that like 1 step foreward and 2 steps back?