Turn Line

@bsolute_luck · #1 09-07-2005, 04:09 PM

you have UTG beat. MP3 we have to think about.

GTSamIAm · #2 09-07-2005, 04:12 PM

My thoughts exactly. If UTG had me beat, he would have check/raised the turn. But can I call/call? The odds MP's giving me suck balls.

milesdyson · #3 09-07-2005, 04:25 PM

MP3's raise is almost always two pair or better (your suspicion that it is a semi-bluff raise is results-oriented i bet). there's a good chance you're drawing dead here to a set or a straight, you're not getting the right price to draw to 5 outs, there's a chance this gets 3-bet behind you, and you're going to pay off one more on the river even if you don't improve. fold.

GTSamIAm · #4 09-07-2005, 08:02 PM

Actually, I thought the turn raiser was semibluffing when I played the hand. It's like sometimes when you hope they're full of [censored] and can't believe yourself. But the odds weren't good and I could have gotten caught in crossifre. [censored] turn donkbets. Actually, the raiser had a king with the flush draw he made on the turn. Tricky.

@bsolute_luck · #5 09-07-2005, 09:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, I thought the turn raiser was semibluffing when I played the hand. It's like sometimes when you hope they're full of [censored] and can't believe yourself. But the odds weren't good and I could have gotten caught in crossifre. [censored] turn donkbets. Actually, the raiser had a king with the flush draw he made on the turn. Tricky.

[/ QUOTE ]

so did you go to showdown? what was the river card? what did you do on this turn/river?

@bsolute_luck · #6 09-07-2005, 04:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My thoughts exactly. If UTG had me beat, he would have check/raised the turn. But can I call/call? The odds MP's giving me suck balls.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, at this point i have to think if you're hand is good. assuming UTG calls (which he probably will) and figuring you call most cards on the river and it goes:

UTG checks, <font color="red">mp3 bets</font>, hero calls, UTG calls. you're getting 4.5:1 meaning he has to be playing A6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] suited or semi-bluffing 7 times out of 10 to call this turn and river profitably (assuming we call the river)

now to the river: this is difficult because the semi-bluff is very good on the turn as if a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes, we don't know which one he was betting or maybe he had 3 of a kind and we're dead. so cards we have to maybe dodge (if he's semi-bluffing): Aces, 7s, [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s, and [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s.

we only have to be wrong 3 times out of 10 to be break even. how 'bout this line:

3-bet, fold to a cap, check behind on the river UI (that includes a K or Q of [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]s or [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s) [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

i don't like calling, i'd like to try and get UTG out of there, plus i think we may have him beat, so if he calls that's more dead money anyways. this might be spewing though, so i'm still thinking [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

WSOP Bound · #7 09-07-2005, 04:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you have UTG beat. MP3 we have to think about.

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I certainly don't think that it's impossible that that is true, but what do you put UTG on that you beat? The only thing that I can think of is that he is a thinking player who has a vulnerable king and doesn't want to allow a free card to the flush draw(s). Even once you disregard him what can you put MP3 on that you beat?