Hand Reading, PP style

[freehat]

Ok so UTG min-raises UTG this could mean any pocket-pair or suited connectors, as a mixing play. MLG calls in the big blind which is pretty much everything but trash, , and really big hands AA-QQ, AK is he is aggressive and likely to re-raise with these hands especially with the other callers.

Ok so the flop checks through this really doesn't change much about MLG's hand as he would check with pretty much any hand to see the action. UTG failed to follow up with his pre-flop raise. What does this mean?

1. He probably doesn't have a set as most players would bet such a draw heavy flop, but there are many bad tourney players who love to slowplay and would check.

2. He has a pocket pair that is fearful to bet cause of the texture of the board with the A and many draws which is pretty likely.

3. A draw such as KQ, or clubs (clubs would be likely to bet, but a gutshot draw could be looking for a free card).

4. Any other crap that missed

The turn: UTG bets just under half the pot, well since everyone else showed weakness on the flop, UTG could be taking a stab with all of his missed hands on the flop, as well as deciding to bet his big hands and a turned set, or gutshot straight.

MLG- calls something like KQ, QJ, or a flush draw or maybe a weaker one pair hand as I think he would pop the turn with a better hand such as two-pair or a set or have the bet the turn in the first place to protect his hand. He could also be calling with air to bluff a scare card on the river such as K, T, heart or club.

River- UTG bets just under half pot again. I dont think he has a one pair hand as he would just check through. A set and straight could be inviting a call, and this could also be a missed draw.

MLG- Check-raises this play indicates either air or some two pair hand that MLG hit on the river and is now value betting. I don't think he is bluffing because this isn't really a scare card and there wouldn't be much reason for UTG to bet marginal showdownable hands on the river and he will call with his strong ones and just fold the crap. The reason MLG checks with two pair is to get money from missed draws, but he should probably bet as to get value from the many UTG hands that would check the river, but not bet the river.

What should the opponent call with: Straight, Set, two-pair, and fold any one pair hand. As MLG's range is 2 pair or a bluff, what percentages I'm not exactly sure, but the calling will be a function of these percentages.

That was fun to write, not sure how much of it makes sense, but you do realize how much harder poker is when you don't know anyone's hand.

[justT]

I'm game, please let me know where my thinking is faulty.

min raise from UTG, probably not a premium hand, initial range JJ-88, AQ, AJs, ATs

MLG's call in BB doesn't tell me much because he was getting great pot odds and implied odds and it only costs a very small % of his stack to call

Flop has two high cards and two suited, MLG's check doesn't say a lot but he probably not checking two pair or a set here, so he's TPWK or less, possibly flush or straight draw (but not both)

UTG's check likely means he didn't like that flop. If he had hit it hard, he'd be betting it here so someone didn't draw out on him..

Turn, again MLG's check doesn't tell me much. UTG's bet is less than half the pot, so he's either very strong (unlikely, KT doesn't seem to fit), or he's got something less than top pair. MLG had 3:1 pot odds to call, so the call doesn't tell me much, could be as little as Qx.

River, MLG checks, the 7d was likely a blank for UTG, his bet is again weak so he's either very strong (again unlikely) or he's got something less than 2 pair. UTG has JJ-88. He never really put MLG to the test, so he needs at least TPTK to call here. MLG could be bluffing (in the unlikely event he read UTG to be as weak as I did), but MLG probably has at least AX or QX, possibly pairing the X, KT is unlikely since he didn't check raise the turn but it's possible.

[Jbrochu]

[ QUOTE ]
MLG's hand range is infinite preflop so I'm not sure why people are trying to confidently guess his exact hand here because there seem to be so many possibilities.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oooops, I think I screwed up on how to do this exercise. I only tried to put him on a hand after considering all of the action.

[JohnFR]

KJ is a stretch, but for some reason KQ seems almost right to me, as I could see somebody playing QT very similar to this and so you may get a crying call from him on the river, with second pair, and you have the best kicker to go with it, if he doesn't have a busted draw and does call, this gives you at least some chance to win. whereas a complete draw has essentially 0% chance to win if he makes a crying call on the river.

[MLG]

So your saying that im bluffing, but Im at least giving myself a tiny chance to win if called. Its an interesting idea, but generally if im willing to make that play with KQ, im willing to make that play on a bluff.

[JohnFR]

And the reason he may call is because you have played this hand like a busted flush draw, and he also only has to call 700 chips for a 2000 chip pot. So I think he could call with QT, Q9, why he would play this hand this way I have no idea but some people are retarded.

[MLG]

I apologize if my post wasn't clear, he has to call 1000 chips. He bet 300 leaving himself with 1000.

[JohnFR]

That and because I think their is a much higher probability that you would play KQ this way rather than some random drawing hand. I don't see you calling 150 for a 310 chip pot with 96h, KQc gives you the nut flush draw, gutshot, second pair. So basically I am saying that I would say the probability is MUCH higher that you have KQc in this spot instead of 96c or 84h, or something of this nature.

[CardSharpCook]

This is a cool excercise. I'll take a stab at it, but I have read the responses. UTG. The min-raise. What does this mean? It could mean that on principle he open-raises any hand that he's gonna play, or it could mean he's getting tricky with AA, or it could mean he wanted to raise, so he clicked the raise button.

Checked around on the flop. MLG ins't going to count on a bet behind him, and isn't afraid to lead out. I don't think he has a hand he is proud of yet, but I may be wrong. UTG has either made a pretty good hand, or has missed his low PP and is waiting to fold. I think that flopped trips is a real possibility.

MLG is aware of a slow-played monster, so he leads out here with his weak hand. But he doesn't do this, so I don't think he has a weak hand. Boy-o in UTG bets less than a half pot. Seems like he either wants some action, or is half-heartedly trying to take down the pot. Our man from Arizona is aware that he might be bluffing, and so he considers rebluffing. But wait, there is no need to bluff when you have a good hand that doesn't mind seeing a river card.

MLG checks again. Why? MLG is fairly certain that UTG is either bluffing or has a pretty good hand. He could try to nut-peddle or value bet his two pair, but he doesn't want to scare UTG into just calling when he might get a lot more action out of him. UTG doesn't bet here with just a queen, and should be a little nervous betting a low two-pair. But he doesn't have a low two pair. He has a nice sized hand. In fact, UTG has trips. So he bets it out and MLG pushes his straight.

OK, here is the problem. Have I blown up both competitors hands? UTG bet somewhat timidly on every street. Could it be that he had a weak hand? But why on earth does he bet the river with a weak hand? I really think this means that he has at least two pair (and I think more) or nothing. As for MLG, I really don't think he's pushing here with less than trips (though he could do so with nothing). I think he is expecting a call. What should UTG call with? Well, after thinking about this for so long, I'm really not sure my trips are good. But can you really fold trips here? I know that MLG doesn't need a straight to do this, but the action makes so much more sense viewed from that light. So, my final answer is that UTG flopped trips and MLG turned the str8.

CSC

[MLG]

Im from NY, not AZ. Different Scarsdale.