Heads up

[mike l.]

ok i do suck, i thought that might be the case. i will play tighter.

[1800GAMBLER]

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I'm mostly an NL player, so this may be elementary, but --

why are you betting that river?

You seem to be bluffing with a hand that has showdown value.

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pure value

60vpip in limit = giant fish.

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edit: the below assumes you are out of position, which is wrong, but i'll leave it.

I think the correct play is to bet the river, remember you don't need to be good here > 50% since you are out of position you just need that line to be more positive expected value or _less negative expected value_ than inducing a bluff, i don't like the idea of inducing a bluff since any hands he has right now have showdown value not bluff value so he is most likely checking. So bet and mostly get called my Acrap, but you'll see Kx 22 etc enough.


... in position i check the river.

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ok i do suck, i thought that might be the case. i will play tighter.

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Playing tight is boring, loosen up, have fun, you only live once.

[elindauer]

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I check this river unless I know BB is an extreme calling station.

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You make it sound like you haven't been given this information. VPIP 61%. Isn't that loose enough to say that a river bet has value?

You might argue that we don't know his postflop SD%. I would respond that no on eplays this loose preflop and then is suddenly tight heads up.

Checking the turn is reasonable, but once you've bet the turn and just been called, betting the river is a layup. You expect to get called and win often.

-Eric


-Eric

[catlover]

I agree with your flop play. But when the turn card hits, I think you have to ask yourself what he could be calling you with.

The likely possibilities are an ace, a nine, a four, and a pocket pair. Of these, you are always behind the ace and the nine. You are ahead of most fours and most pocket pairs -- but not all of either. Overall this means you are behind more than half the time. So I think a check on the turn is indicated.

If he checks the river after you check behind on the turn, you can bet it. Or call if he bets the river as your check may have induced a bluff.

[jediael]

When he calls you are not good more than 55% of the time, which is needed to make the bet better than a check given the fact that you intend to call a raise as you did.

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I check this river unless I know BB is an extreme calling station.

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You make it sound like you haven't been given this information. VPIP 61%. Isn't that loose enough to say that a river bet has value?

You might argue that we don't know his postflop SD%. I would respond that no on eplays this loose preflop and then is suddenly tight heads up.

Checking the turn is reasonable, but once you've bet the turn and just been called, betting the river is a layup. You expect to get called and win often.

-Eric


-Eric

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How loose a player plays preflop does not necessarily correlate with their calling standards postflop. I know many very loose passive players that would not call this river bet without and Ace or a nine. Yet that same person will call with bottom pair if you raised preflop and there is no ace or king on the board. an Ace on the board kills most of the hands a typical calling station will call you with on the river. You almost have to be against someone who doesnt understand the game of poker to make this kind of a value bet on this specific board IMO.

[kiddo]

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Villian is 61/13/1


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You almost have to be against someone who doesnt understand the game of poker to make this kind of a value bet on this specific board IMO.

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[SA125]

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i wish i was good at the search function so i wouldn't have to write this post again ... ohwell, i'll do it for you mike.

AF=(bet%+raise%)/(call%)

if you play 11% of your hands you will be doing probably 3x or more betting+raising than calling

if you are playing 50% of your hands, BASED ON HAND STRENGTH ALONE, you should be doing a lot more calling than betting and raising combined. but theoretically you should be doing a lot of folding postflop due to pot odds. every action that this player does that is NOT a fold influences the AF. if it =1 then they do just as much betting and raising than calling. clearly you can see that 1 here is extremely aggressive.

now back to the 11%vbpiper, if he does as much betting and raising as calling he's extremely passive, really really super passive.

got it?

Barron

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Yes. I knew how the AF was calculated, but never took the time to apply it to the example. Mistake. Good job. Thanks.

[elindauer]

Too funny. Here's how I see this conversation:

me: You might argue that we don't know his postflop SD%. I would respond that no one plays this loose preflop and then is suddenly tight heads up.

you: preflop and postflop are different! We don't know his showdown percentage!

There are PLENTY of hands that you beat, he might play just like this, and will call a bet. They include:

TT, 88, 77, 66, 33, 22, any 4, 53, 52.

Further, after he just calls a turn bet, there is every reason to believe that he does NOT have a 9, and that if he has an ace, he will just call the river. In other words, you expect that you will almost never be check-raised, save for exactly 23 hitting the gutshot.

Finally, arguing that you once saw someone play very loose preflop but then reasonably postflop is absurd. Almost everyone who plays 61% of their hands preflop is going to be very loose postflop. You don't beat these players by bluffing ace-high boards, you beat them by value-betting them to death. If you wouldn;t bet an ace, you're essentially saying that you need ace-above-average-kicker to bet here. That's too passive against a calling station. He can call you with king high!

I don't have a problem with checking the turn, but that's where the danger was. After you are just called on the turn, the river is an easy bet.

Good luck.
Eric