Raised on the turn with Top Pair

synbad13 · #1 09-05-2005, 01:23 AM

Villain is a Tag: 17/10/1.4

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, Button calls, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, MP1 folds, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (11 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero ?.

So Villain 3 bet preflop, then check raised me on the turn... what would you do?

Harv72b · #2 09-05-2005, 01:37 AM

I think I can find a fold here. Villian looks reasonable in his stats, and the line he's taken here looks remarkably like QQ, JJ, or possibly AA with the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. The flush is a possibility, although with the Q & J on the board he'd have to be holding A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] specifically to have 3-bet you preflop.

You're drawing dead against a set or a flush, and you have precious few outs against an overpair. He's telling you quite firmly that TP isn't good enough.

Buck_65 · #3 09-05-2005, 01:48 AM

I'd have to fold to the turn check-raise. A flush or a set seems somewhat likely. Looks like AQ at worst to me, I don't see how villain makes this play with anything you're not crushed by. What can you put him on that you're ahead of given his play? I don't think a TAG does this with AK with 1 heart.

Edited to make sense.

synbad13 · #4 09-05-2005, 01:50 AM

Does this change your decision? That was posted with only about 25 hands played with villain. Upon 80 hands villains stats are 29/5/7.

Does this make him more likely to raise the turn with only a flush draw?

Harv72b · #5 09-05-2005, 01:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Does this change your decision? That was posted with only about 25 hands played with villain. Upon 80 hands villains stats are 29/5/7.

Does this make him more likely to raise the turn with only a flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

7?

You need to include the number of hands in your read when it's so small--25 hands is not a read, unless the guy is 92/48 over those 25 hands.

The expanded read (which doesn't really matter since you didn't have that info when you played this hand) makes it more likely that you're behind at this point (in my book), but if his AF really is 7 and not 0.7, then it makes it less likely that you're drawing dead. It would at least give you some hope that he was holding AKo with a single [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. If it's supposed to be 0.7, that makes the turn fold even easier.

TaintedRogue · #6 09-05-2005, 02:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is a Tag: 17/10/1.4

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, Button calls, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, MP1 folds, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (11 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero ?.

So Villain 3 bet preflop, then check raised me on the turn... what would you do?

[/ QUOTE ]
There are 3 AK hands that he could be bluffing with to Ah flush draw. There are three AJ hands with the Ah, if he would 3 bet AJ preflop.
There are 10.5BB in the pot and you are going to have to call 2 to see the showdown, to win 11.5. Hez puttin the pressure on......squeezin you nutz.........do you feel lucky?.......I have ck/raised with Ah,Kx in this type situation. I don't think I do it often enough for you to make a profit chasing the next time you catch me with these pot odds though. That is why I do it with these pot odds.....only I don't do it but maybe once in 9-11 instances.

Bodhi · #7 09-05-2005, 02:43 AM

You have 5.25:1 effective odds to showdown, and the villain isn't bluffing often enough for you to call, so this is a fold in my book.