Getting near the bubble. Fold or play.

[mauisupaman]

I think you're looking to keep the pot relatively small here because the risk reward is just to great. If Bob gets out flopped that's it - it'll be over on just one hand. But if he wins he's almost guaranteed to coast into the top ten.

Are the KK going to be a big enough favorite often enough to make it worth it? Say Bob "knew" that the guy had AJ exactly. Then he'd be about 70:30 to win. I don't know the exact stack size of all 14 players, but I don't think its worth the call even if he know he likely has the best hand.

And 4 places from the bubble seems close enough to me especially with two short stacks. Adding to that fact that I expect Bob to be one of the better players left. I think he should've folded this big pot and continued to contest smaller ones with less risk. I'd rather barely make it into the top ten with little risk instead of definitely making it in with a big risk.

His goal here is not to win all the chips, it's just to survive long enough.
A hui hou,
Adam

[Bob T.]

I posted this, because in retrospect, I didn't like my play at all.

At the time, I thought that based on his earlier play, his most likely holding, was an underpair to my hand like 88-JJ where I would be a 4-1 favorite, and if that was the case, then that was about where I thought my chances of making the cut after folding were. If I folded, I still was probably going to be the one responsible for trying to take out the short stacks, and if either of them doubled through me, I would be even money with that player from that point on. Which makes me probably a little less than 4-1 to make it.

At the time, I thought that he made a mistake, but in retrospect, I think that I probably made a mistake by calling and taking my chances on the hand.

After the hand, I told the short stacks that if they made it, they owed me a beer on board for making that call, and the one that did make it readily agreed. So I got that potential beer as extra EV to add into the equation [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img].

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
I think he should've folded this big pot and continued to contest smaller ones with less risk.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what happens when no one respects hero's raises and he can't win a pot preflop anymore? Is he willing to fold ITM?