Is this all in on the flop reasonable or stupid? - Page 3

trevor · #21 09-04-2005, 11:44 AM

Post-flop is excellent. You are in great shape against a mid-overpair (which I think is reasonable here).

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1198344
pokenum -h as ks - 9c 9d -- 5s 3s 6h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5s 3s 6h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 536 54.14 436 44.04 18 1.82 0.551
9c 9d 436 44.04 536 54.14 18 1.82 0.449

I like the all-in because Hero has $45 left while UTG has $120 plus. It sucks if Hero makes it $20, UTG calls and the turn is a brick. Stick it all-in there and make sure you see five cards.

You push because there is a fair amount of folding equity here. You are representing overpair and it's likely he can find a fold for 77-JJ. He's not folding a set or two pair. I think this line is fine if you also play a set the same way. The min-raise is either overpair/set by villian. I guess set if you posted this.

PaultheS · #22 09-04-2005, 11:53 AM

I like it. To the people who talk about "if you're behind..." I thought I should mention that Hero has an edge on a lot of hands that are "ahead" here, like 88-QQ. For example, from twodimes:

pokenum -h as ks - 9h 9d -- 5s 3s 6h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5s 3s 6h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 536 54.14 436 44.04 18 1.82 0.551
9d 9h 436 44.04 536 54.14 18 1.82 0.449

Even when one of your outs is counterfeited, for example, by A6s:

pokenum -h as ks - ad 6d -- 5s 3s 6h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5s 3s 6h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 450 45.45 522 52.73 18 1.82 0.464
Ad 6d 522 52.73 450 45.45 18 1.82 0.536

Add in the fold equity and this is a very strong semi-bluff. The only hands that have you in bad shape are the made straight (63/37), a set (74/26), and aces (63/37), the last being pretty unlikely given the preflop action.

Just thought this would help people put things in perspective.

TheWorstPlayer · #23 09-04-2005, 11:57 AM

Raise more preflop. Don't push overbet the flop. I prefer calling and then check/raising the turn all-in. If he has a set or straight, he's not folding it on the flop but might very well pay you off on the turn. If he has a marginal hand, he will either let you see the river for free or fold to your turn check/raise. And best scenario is that he has a flush draw also. So don't blow him off it.

FlyingStart · #24 09-04-2005, 12:05 PM

Yes, I think the last post there was my real reason for the scepsis to this move, It just didn't reach my concious mind.

Why pick up a small pot in this situation at most time, and have a coinflip or worse with a huge pot a few times?

Build the huge pot when make your hand instead (I know that the flush i somewhat obvious but still you should be able to extract some value here, atleast if he has a set). You are also getting almost immediate odds on a call here, don't forget that (since he only raised the minimum)

brian94709 · #25 09-04-2005, 02:37 PM

Do you mean to check raise the turn only if your flush card hits? If so, what do you do if a blank falls?

TheWorstPlayer · #26 09-04-2005, 02:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you mean to check raise the turn only if your flush card hits? If so, what do you do if a blank falls?

[/ QUOTE ]
I probably c/r a-i no matter what hits. Hoping to get the same fold I would have gotten on the flop from a pair hands (but now I made more money off them) and probably getting the same calls from straights and sets, but I still have some decent equity against them. And if I really view the guy as strong, I always have the option of c/f on the turn if he doesn't give me odds to draw. Or he can check it through and I get to see the river for free.

brian94709 · #27 09-04-2005, 02:49 PM

So after posting the previous hand yesterday, I ran into the following hand before going to bed. I was still trying out the all in on the flop in this situation, but I'm a bit embarrased to post this one, as in this case I think my play was clearly retarded. I think it's very interesting to contrast this hand with the last one.

The differences:

-stack sizes are now huge
-Villain is much looser, reducing fold equity
-Villain's raise was much larger, increasing the chance that he has a set or two pair.
-on the other hand, the board lends itselfs to a possible semi-bluff from Villain

How would you play this hand? Calling his raise is very expensive. Can you lay this down?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($138.47)
SB ($58.25)
BB ($53.45)
UTG ($51.93)
MP ($47.50)
CO ($172.94)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.5, 2 folds, CO calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $5, CO raises to $20, Hero calls $130.97 (All-In), CO calls $115.97.

Turn: ($277.69) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($277.69) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $277.69

brian94709 · #28 09-04-2005, 06:19 PM

bump..

mayesie · #29 09-04-2005, 08:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is a solid TAG. roughly 30/10/2.3

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em (NL$50) (5 handed) link

SB ($94.20)
Hero ($50.00)
UTG ($132.47)
Button ($22.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, 1 folds, SB calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.50, UTG calls $1.50, 1 folds.

Flop: ($4.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $3.00, UTG raises to $6.00, Hero raises all-in ($45.00), UTG folds.

Final Pot: $58.50.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, but 30/10/2.3 doesn't qualify as a "Solid TAG" (plays too many hands).

Yes, I think the all-in flop raise was over-zealous. With a draw this strong, you should be thinking about how you're going to get paid off if you make your hand. IMO, a call on the flop is in order, betting at least 1/2 pot on the turn no matter what shows.