Some CFB picks I'm mulling over.

TRWIII · #1 08-30-2005, 11:23 PM

Georgia Tech +7.5 at Auburn.

GATech is likely going to lose this game, but three points:
1)GT has a great defense, possibly tops in the ACC (at least in the top three), and seldom lose by more than a touchdown.
2)Auburn seldom covers the spread when favored by less than 10 (1-5 in the last 3 seasons, 11-22 in the last 12).
3)GT held Auburn to 3 points in their last meeting.

On a related note, I think taking the under 40 pts is a good bet as well... two good defenses, an unlikely big win, and question marks on offense.

Texas A&M -1.5 at Clemson.

Am I the only one that finds this line a bit curious? A&M is returning 9 starters on an offense that was more than capable last year, and the tiger's defense was decent, but not spectacular. More importantly, I think, is the disappointing offensive performance from clemson throughout the year. When I handicapped this game before looking at the number I got A&M as around a 5 pt favorites. Eh. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Comments welcome.

And as a post note... thank god football's back. Good luck and good handicapping to everyone.

TRWIII

Ken_AA · #2 08-30-2005, 11:28 PM

I agree with your A+M pick, but others seem to think that Clemson's home field advantage will be enough for them to pull this one out..... also, the game opened at Even, and the money has come in on A+M, I hate betting with the public.

Ken

TRWIII · #3 08-30-2005, 11:44 PM

Oh, and just for sh*ts and giggles, Im betting 10 bucks on the following moneyline:

UL Lafayette +33300 over Texas [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. And actually dont think its strictly a bad bet.... for it to be profitable ULALA has to hit the upset once in 333 games or better and nobody has a real winning probablity that far under 1%. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Cheers

TRWIII

mmbt0ne · #4 08-31-2005, 03:23 AM

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
Georgia Tech +7.5 at Auburn.

GATech is likely going to lose this game, but three points:
1)GT has a great defense, possibly tops in the ACC (at least in the top three), and seldom lose by more than a touchdown.
2)Auburn seldom covers the spread when favored by less than 10 (1-5 in the last 3 seasons, 11-22 in the last 12).
3)GT held Auburn to 3 points in their last meeting.

On a related note, I think taking the under 40 pts is a good bet as well... two good defenses, an unlikely big win, and question marks on offense.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sell the cars and mortgage the house. This is the lock of the century andrewbross style!! Ball to Johnson...TOUCHDOWN! Handoff to Daniels....TOUCHDOWN!

Actually, I've posted on here before about how much I hate betting on GT because they're so inconsistent. Oh well, I'll be at the game, and, all kidding aside, I like your reasoning for this pick. Also, under 40? Wow, that seems too good to be true. Neither of these teams has an offense that can score 20 against these defenses.

craig r · #5 08-31-2005, 03:42 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with your A+M pick, but others seem to think that Clemson's home field advantage will be enough for them to pull this one out..... also, the game opened at Even, and the money has come in on A+M, I hate betting with the public.

Ken

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the public has bet yet. How fast did the line move?

craig

broiler · #6 08-31-2005, 07:42 AM

I believe that the line moved quickly to -1 right after it opened. I know that I never saw it online at less than -1. The move to -1.5 happened about 2 weeks ago so I agree that it isn't likely that the public had anything to do with the line move.

TRWIII · #7 08-31-2005, 08:33 AM

I think the line moved right about the time that Kirk Herbstreet (sp?) said on national television that he thinks A&M has a good outside chance of winning the Big 12 this year. While I dont think its particulary likely, its not completely out of the question. That was a couple of weeks ago I believe.

TRWIII

TRWIII · #8 09-01-2005, 12:14 AM

Another bet I pondered most of the day before I put one unit on it:

Louisville at Kentucky under 62

What this line says to me is that the lines makers are expecting Louisville to win this game around 42-20. While Louisville scoring 40 wont surprise me, if Kentucky scores at least 20 Ill be stunned.

Kentucky has shown very little momentum towards improving one of the worst offenses in the country for the last several years, and as opposed to other offensive juggernauts like Boise State, the Cardinals can actually play defense. I think Louisville could score 50 and the under still win.

If you're curious as to what I think of the +/-22 line, I like the Cardinals -22, but not enough to bet it, simply because big line numbers make me nervous unless they're absurd (an example is the OU/Baylor game two years ago, where you could get Baylor +64).

TRWIII

TRWIII · #9 09-04-2005, 01:21 AM

Eh, 2-1 so far this weekend. Go Yellow Jackets! Hit the +7.5 and the under 40. The only thing that spoiled my perfect Saturday was that *censored* last second field goal for Clemson to smother my A&M -1.5 pick. Damned kickers.

Still waiting for my last bet this weekend to come through (the under for the Louisville/Kentucky game).

Cheers

TRWIII