milking river bets on a 4-flush board

[vanHelsing]

Villain (MP) is a bit loose PF, but I only had ~30 hands with him.
Prior to this hand he two times missed a good opportunity to bluff the river due to perfect scare cards. He didn't bluff in both, holding hands with zero showdown value.
I made a note of that.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

BB ($200)
UTG ($223.05)
MP ($371.49)
Hero ($408.90)
Button ($192.70)
SB ($198.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $1.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $12</font>, Hero calls $12, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG calls $5.

My call might look marginal, b/c I'm sandwiched.
UTG is ~ 60% PFR and got often reraised, never played back so far, so I felt save with position on two loosies.


Flop: ($39) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($39) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>, UTG folds, MP calls $30.

River: ($99) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP bets $30</font>, Hero...

Now, I am getting great odds of 1:4, but expect to beaten a large %. Do I win 20% or more? I can't tell.

Do I have to byte the bullet and make the automatic crying call, or is folding an option?

[wtfsvi]

Folding is an option. He has Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Qx a ridic amount of the time here. (Unless he's very passive on flop and turn normally.)

And when he doesn't have a heart, he'll sometimes have a totally butchered AA/KK. Hopefully for him not often though.

I fold.

[emil3000]

Looks like a good fold.

[amoeba]

river is a typical value bet. fold.

[IamLeach]

I hate catching sets in sit's like these. I'd fold here.

[vanHelsing]

Thanks for the replies.
At least I'm not the only one who thinks this is a value bet in most cases.

I folded, he showed me 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I smashed my mouse.
Sometimes I make moves like this myself, when I sense my opponent is capable of folding a good hand. In those situations a 1/3 pot bet looks somehow more scary than a 3/4 one and it doesn't have to work very often to be +ev.
Villain, nh!