AJs flops TPTK

[sean c]

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Ah, if we get it heads-up then our equity depends entirely on what the CO has (obviously, again). I imagine that we'd be ahead more often than behind though, so around 65% as a wild guess. The problem is that getting hu with a check-raise isn't realistic. You have two ep limpers, and if they're playing anything decent, the flop hit them squarely. With the tendency of semi-loose players to limp with hands like Q9, QT, KT, KJ, T9, not to mention suited hands, the only hands this flop missed entirely were the lower pocket-pairs.

If a safe turn card falls, e.g. 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I'm going to donk the turn because we can't count on the CO to bet again. What you're going to say is "Aha! But now the drawing hands are getting odds to call, and we're giving them better odds than if we had check-raised the flop." This is true, but we can't do anything about that if our equity on the flop was less than 25%. If a safe turn card does fall, then the chance of our equity giving us +EV on the turn bet is much better.

Edit: Actually, if we just called the flop and donked the turn, the odds we'd give our opponents really wouldn't be that much better than what they got from the flop cr because only 4 sb would've gone in on the flop.

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Bodhi these are all good points. You are correct about the flop check/raise 11.5:2 vs check/call turn donk 6.25:1 but would you agree that our villians need 6 pretty clean outs to call either flop check/raise or a turn donk bet profitably and may pick up enough outs on the turn to call both a bet on the flop and turn profitably and possibly out draw us on the river. I also think saying the flop hit eveyone squarely and that we have basically no fold equity on the flop is not entirely true.

[TXTiger]

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Sure, we're decreasing the equity of drawing hands when we raise, but do we even have 2 small bet's worth of equity on this flop? 4 players, 8.2 small bets, we need 25% equity to make a flop-raise worthwhile, and we wouldn't even have that much unless we have the best hand right now, let alone by the turn and river.

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Your thinking is flawed. So you are just going to ignore the fact that there are already 9.5 sb in the pot? If we are going to call anyway, then we are investing 1sb to give us a better chance to win a 10.5sb pot. And it gives us information that that allows us to make better decisions on later streets. It's not strictly about equity of the flop bets. A gutshot correctly calls if we call, but folds if we raise. And sure we'd like to wait for the turn, but our position makes it impossible.

A flop call followed by a turn check raise is really bad. If CO bets the turn he's betting because he has us beat. He checks a worse hand everytime. Would you even consider betting AK/AQ if you were cutoff and just got called on this flop? This is also explained in my first post.

As I said before I do think a flop call followed by betting a safe turn card is reasonable. But people limp with all sorts of crap, we shouldn't assume that the flop hit them hard enough to call a raise cold on the flop.

[Bodhi]

I'm not advocating a turn check-raise, but your other points are already noted.

[fizzleboink]

I think the fact that everyone called the flop is influencing our decision to wait until the turn to raise.

I think raising the flop to give gutshots and 1-pair hands improper odds to call is worth it. Waiting until the turn to raise is for when you can't give anyone incorrect odds on the flop. Yes your equity will change drastically on the turn, but I still think you have enough of an edge to push here on the flop.

The turn is a little rough but I usually bet/fold here.

[Steve09797]

I bet out on the turn here, and probably check call the river. If he raises you on the turn he's got AK or atleast has a king or possibly even aces. I think you have to lead out to find that out. By checking you are just giving him a chance to take the aggression and you aren't really finding out what he has.

[thesharpie]

Forgot about this thread until I saw a mention of it in your AQ one.

CO had K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and MP1 had Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

pokenum -h ah jh - kc kd - jd qd -- 8d td js
Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing Js Td 8d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ah Jh 78 8.64 819 90.70 6 0.66 0.090
Kc Kd 381 42.19 522 57.81 0 0.00 0.422
Qd Jd 438 48.50 459 50.83 6 0.66 0.488

Obviously this is almost a worse case scenario which doesn't tell us much. It would be more accurate doing a pokerstove run with ranges of hands. I might try that later if noone else does.