5-5NL live: AA in the SB

[howzit]

This is from a friend of mine and wanted some advice on it:

5-5NL live.

Hero SB: covers
asian aggro: UTG, $1k
solid, mid-30s: CO, $760
button: $450

all limp and hero makes it $60. blinds fold, limpers come along.

Flop: ($250) T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
hero leads for $125. asian aggro calls, solid player makes it $300 straight, button folds.


hero? plans?

thanks.

[ahnuld]

You're probsbly posting becuase hero folded and someone had a flsuh draw and someone had a lower pair and hero woulda won. But I think hero needs to fold this. He represents such a strong hand and still gets a cold caller and a raiser. Someone normally has him beat and he can safely fold this although reads on what these guys limp then call 11xbb raises with would help.

[redtrain]

Flop lead is too small, UTG probably calling with a flush draw. The reraise could be a draw or worse PP. Do you think a 10 is likely here? I would lead $200 instead of $125, given where you are, I would push.

[redtrain]

Your post doesn't read well any more since you edited.

[howzit]

ok, will clean it up one last time.

[ QUOTE ]
Someone normally has him beat and he can safely fold this although reads on what these guys limp then call 11xbb raises with would help.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is actually my hand (howzit posted for me). couple more details: pot was actually straddled to $10. UTG (aggro) called $10, MP (solid player) called, button called, i raised in SB to $60. straddle folded. all 3 limpers called. reads: asian aggro very loose preflop. solid player pretty loose preflop, tightish postflop. figured aggro guy for anything from KT-T8, A6, flush draw. figured solid player for overpair or big T.

[ahnuld]

JUst thinking sbout it more, if people are advocating pushing right now becuase a flush draw is out, why not smooth call the flop? Then if the asian guy pushes, we can assume he has a T and fold. If he calls again it complicates things, but I doubt he would smooth call again with a T.

Lets assume he folds. Black guy could have a T, a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a pair. Instead of pushing on flop, why not push on any non heart turn? If a heart does come, we can safely fold knowing he has either a flush or a T (small chance of other PP in my opinion)

[ahnuld]

Im too lazy but someone should do the math on the flop to show that pushing is bad.

Id say 40% chance of T or 66
40% chance of flush draw
20% chance of some other pp.

do the math assuming hero pushes and villan calls. It would probably be a very close call.

I think its a clear fold beucase these calculations odnt include the asian guy, who could be slowplaying.

[howzit]

pushing works only if you're certain they're both on flush draws.

i think the 3rd guy could make this an easier call than normal because his action will help dictate the future actions on teh street. Let's assume asian will call here and it gets checked to the solid guy on a blank turn. What hands will he be able to blow off w/$400 in a $1150 pot? he'll take the free card w/a draw or just stick it in w/a ten.

this is straight forward thinking but i think w/the 3rd guy in, it simplifies the hand somewhat.

If the asian guy decdies to show up w/a 3 bet on the flop, this is an easy fold w/the asian's stack size.

[ QUOTE ]

If the asian guy decdies to show up w/a 3 bet on the flop, this is an easy fold w/the asian's stack size.

[/ QUOTE ]

Question is should I call $175 more (pot now $625) with Asian guy still to act behind me on the flop. if he calls, effectively getting $175 to win $800 (4.5:1) with decent implied odds if I am up against trips/underfull ... albeit 2-outer.