Stealing, Stealing, Pretty mama don't you tell on me. - Page 2

ansky451 · #11 09-02-2005, 12:08 AM

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I dont think you can automatically say the SB is pissed and is pushing with air, rather I think there is a good chance he has finally woken up with a premium hand. So I tighten my calling standards. I realize your getting decent odds to call here, but I think I call with a pair of 10s and up. and I like A9 and up. KQ also.

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There is no way A9o plays better than 99 in this spot.

pokerraja · #12 09-02-2005, 12:24 AM

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I dont think you can automatically say the SB is pissed and is pushing with air, rather I think there is a good chance he has finally woken up with a premium hand. So I tighten my calling standards. I realize your getting decent odds to call here, but I think I call with a pair of 10s and up. and I like A9 and up. KQ also.

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There is no way A9o plays better than 99 in this spot.

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funny you point this out, because I was thinking A10 and up as I was typing it. Lethal said A9 and up. I like tightening up a bit since villian has been so tight.

ansky451 · #13 09-02-2005, 04:04 AM

I still think 99 is better than AT in that spot.

LethalRose · #14 09-02-2005, 12:45 PM

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I dont think you can automatically say the SB is pissed and is pushing with air, rather I think there is a good chance he has finally woken up with a premium hand. So I tighten my calling standards. I realize your getting decent odds to call here, but I think I call with a pair of 10s and up. and I like A9 and up. KQ also.

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I wasnt serious on the super pissed part..

Luke · #15 09-02-2005, 01:04 PM

I dunno, I'm thinking my calling range would be a little tighter than what has been mentioned so far.

The main reason being that I don't think we can suddenly assume that the SB is "pissed" and is taking a stand.

I mean sure, maybe he is, but since this is only the first time you've seen him do something about your stealing and he's not under tremendous pressure from the blinds yet, I'm more apt to believe that he actually has a hand.

I estimate his range to be something like {AA-88, AKs-AJs, AKo-AQo} and with 1.6:1 pot odds, I'm even money or better with: {AK-AQ, AA-99}.

Luke

DireWolf · #16 09-02-2005, 01:27 PM

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I dunno, I'm thinking my calling range would be a little tighter than what has been mentioned so far.

The main reason being that I don't think we can suddenly assume that the SB is "pissed" and is taking a stand.

I mean sure, maybe he is, but since this is only the first time you've seen him do something about your stealing and he's not under tremendous pressure from the blinds yet, I'm more apt to believe that he actually has a hand.

I estimate his range to be something like {AA-88, AKs-AJs, AKo-AQo} and with 1.6:1 pot odds, I'm even money or better with: {AK-AQ, AA-99}.

Luke

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This is where it gets interesting. My thinking was a lot like yours.

MY hand was AJo, Do you call?

Another thing to consider is my stack size if i lose. With my current chips i was able to lag it up (and the table was pretty compliant), but if i call and lose here, i will have to play boring, wait for a decent hand, poker.

Crispy · #17 09-02-2005, 01:46 PM

Yeah I pretty much instantly call. You know that your stealing has not gone unnoticed. If I were Villan I am almost pushing any 2 to get you to stop stealing my blinds. I think AJ will be a coinflip or even a favorite against the SB's range of hands most of the time. In addition, if you win your table image will only be reinforced and you should expect to steal even more blinds.

DireWolf · #18 09-02-2005, 01:54 PM

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Yeah I pretty much instantly call. You know that your stealing has not gone unnoticed. If I were Villan I am almost pushing any 2 to get you to stop stealing my blinds. I think AJ will be a coinflip or even a favorite against the SB's range of hands most of the time. In addition, if you win your table image will only be reinforced and you should expect to steal even more blinds.

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Like i have said, I didn't think villain was restealing here. Obviously his range will be larger than normal here, but how much larger? I don't think as large as some people are making it out to be.

Another point, that probably would have helped in the beginning, was that i thought villan would call with the weaker hands that some people would push here.

DonT77 · #19 09-02-2005, 02:00 PM

I've run the analysis on AJo versus some possible SBs ranges.

First of all, you have to call 27K to win 47.5K so you need to win about 36% of the time for a call to be +cEV.

Here are a few ranges of hands that I gave SB and how AJo compares:

AJo vs 66+/AJ+ (fairly tight): you win 34%, so this is -EV
AJo vs 22+/AJ+ (a little looser): 36%, so this is EV neutral
AJo vs 66+/AT+ (a little looser yet): 37%, so if you think SB could have AT or worse - then this call become correct from a purely cEV standpoint.

Personally, if I thought the SB was tightish - and that he probably wouldn't make this play with a medium ace, then I'd fold as you do have a good sized, cheap stealing stack - and I wouldn't want to risk that on a nearly EV neutral play.

Luke · #20 09-02-2005, 04:29 PM

Another thing to consider is my stack size if i lose. With my current chips i was able to lag it up (and the table was pretty compliant), but if i call and lose here, i will have to play boring, wait for a decent hand, poker.

I think this outweighs the meta-game benefits of calling. You know, opponents thinking that they can resteal from you if you "weakly" fold here.

To me, AJ just doesn't have enough equity against the range I'm putting this guy on so I'd fold and just go back to stealing some blinds.

Luke