|
|
#1
08-29-2003, 12:49 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Limit hand on the bubble
Stars $50, 153 players down to 20 with 18 paid. 10-18 get $92. Winner gets $2400. Blinds 400-800.
It's folded to me (3985) after posting) in the SB with AdKc. I raise and the BB (14000, decent player) calls. Flop is 9d7d2c. I bet and he raises. I have 1985 left. The pot is 5600. I take time and look at the other too tables and find only two stacks below 3000. What to do? My goal is neither to make the money nor to win the tournament. It's to maximize my EV. Fold? Raise? Call and check fold unless an A,K, or diamond hits the turn? Call and bet any scare card on the turn? Comments on betting out versus checking on this flop also appreciated. 
|
|
#2
08-29-2003, 09:58 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Limit hand on the bubble
Does he HAVE to have a pair or better to make this raise? Could he be doing it with a decent A or a draw?
If he pretty much always will have the pair here, then a fold is correct. If there's any chance he's bluffing or semi-bluffing, then you should call him down. If you choose to call him down, do NOT put in any raises or bets, even if you hit your A or K, unless you make that runner-runner nut flush. This way, you will not go broke on the hand, and will have some chance at making the money. You're better off keeping that last bet and keeping a shot at the money than you are trying to win one more bet out of this pot, which will already be big by the river. Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)
|
|
#5
08-29-2003, 12:31 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Limit hand on the bubble
Life would have been so much easier if it were NL, where I think an all-in pre-flop is the way to go. My inclination here (assuming the two others that are below 3000 were at that level at the start of your hand) would have been to fold the AK pre-flop. Obviously thats a very negative EV play under most circumstances, with your chip stack so low you maximize your EV by getting into the money, and since youve paid your small blind youve got more time than the other short stacks. AA and KK are the only hands I would play without a second thought.
I also hate the post flop bet. It is a prime example of "dont bet if you will hate to be raised". AK is a very tough hand to lay down heads up, but your stack is screaming "Noooooooo". A check and call at least lets you see the turn card for 1 small bet. Once youve gotten to where you are my inclination is to call it down all the way, unless at least one of the other two that are below 3000 is below 1200. BBs raise here could very well be a bluff in recognition that might have to fold on the bubble. You may be ahead, and if not, I would think youve got all 6 outs. I think those are better odds than trying to out last two others that can go more than 1 full orbit before they blind out. The only other consideration I might have in folding here is the fact that the Button and cut-off (presumably decent stacks) folded to you. Pressure needs to be put on short stacked blinds to not let them see cheap flops, or they may be threatening your stack some day. If folding has been a habit, indicating that they are weak tournament players that, without standard calling/raising hands are likely to give you a pass in the BB or a free look again in the SB you can fold here.
|
|
#6
08-29-2003, 01:27 PM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Limit hand on the bubble
You're right, he does say blinds are 400-800. I was thinking 400-800 limits.
With blinds this high, he only has just under 5 bets in his stack, and he's already put 3 of them into the pot. He's getting 8:2 on his last two bets, and he MIGHT still be in the lead here. Call the flop raise, and check-and-call any further bet. Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
