at what point do you get away from this?

[mike l.]

6 handed 20-40 okay game. i openraise in cutoff w/ JTs, button i dont know who seems tightish on first impression 3 bets, sb calls, i call.

the flop is T82. checked to button who bets, sb folds, and i checkraise. button calls.

turn is an A. how should i play out the rest of this hand and why? please no stupid stuff like "fold. youre beat." show your work, do the math. help me learn how to play this sucker.

[pilchard]

Mike,

Although this game is shorthanded, if your read on this player is correct then he is likely to be three betting you with AK,AQ,AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT or 99 (if he is not that tight and has loosened up correctly for shorthanded games, other hands like lower pocket pairs, smaller As and KQ could be other possibilities).

Given that an A appears on the turn there are 12 ways he can have AK, 12 AQ, 3 AA. 27 hands where the AA gives him top pair and he is going to a showdown despite any aggression you may show.

There are 6 KK, 6 QQ, 3 JJ, 6 99 (there are 3TT and you'll find out on the turn if he has TT) that is 21 hands.

So between a mid-high pocket pair and a big A the split is roughly 50/50 but all of the hands with the exception of 99 now have you beat.

His just calling of your flop checkraise would make me favour a big A. Even a tight predictable player would three bet KK,QQ, or JJ on that flop.

There are 7 big bets in the pot by the turn and you have to think that you are behind. However, if behind, AT BEST you have 5 outs assuming he does not have AJ,AT,AA, JJ or TT and there are 44 unseen cards (I have included his two such as AK or AQ in this). Your chances of improving AT BEST are 5/39 or 1/8, so you would need odds of 7-1 to merit a call, odds you have if you want to take the best case scenario.

There are opponents I play with regularly that with this betting pattern would mean I am beaten, maybe dead, and I would fold the turn. I do not think you know this player nearly well enough to fold on the turn. So do you bet or check call the turn. Betting gives you the opportunity of folding a big pair if the three bettor fears the A and he is really tight passive. However, it also sets you up for a raise which costs you EV.

I would check call the turn, and when the river misses you make a decision whether he really could have 99!!!

[Diplomat]

Hi Mike,

I found it odd that your opponent did not three-bet the flop after three-betting pre-flop. I'd three bet here with most pocket pairs and most big aces. Lack of knowledge of the player clouds things though, particularily short handed.

That said, the ace on the turn either made his hand, or made your hand look stronger. (if you bet) In such a game, I'd almost always go to the river in this situation, almost always to showdown. (because my opponents bluff quite a bit when it get's short handed) I'd prefer not to pay 3 bets to see his hand, or to fold him out if the ace scares him. I'd strongly consider doing a stop and go here, maybe checking the turn and betting the river if a blank comes off. Some thoughts to consider:

If my opponent has an ace and hit on the turn, how aggressive will they play that ace?

If my opponent does not have an ace and did not flop a big hand, (pocket 8's for example) how often will he try to use the ace to blow me off my hand?

How often will my opponent fold a hand I'd like them to call with (say, 99) if I bet the turn?

I hate advocating check/call then check/call, but it might be best...Granted this is what I would do in my games, where opponents get very aggressive at the first sign of weakness in a short-handed situation. I hope you got a lot out of this hand in the way of info about your opponent so you could hammer him later. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

-Diplomat

[elysium]

hi mike
much depends on your image here, but if you've been showing down solid and not getting out of line, then when that A hits, bet from first position, and usually fold from LP if your opponent bets the A, unless he has an image problem.

this is all image here. if you've had an occasional loose hand here and there, and we're talking like once an hour at the max., if you have shown-down a loose hand within say the last 45 min., then don't bet the A, but rather check and base your future action on opponent knowledge, tells, etc.; use radar.

it's not wrong to fold in this spot if your image isn't solid, and it's correct to bet if it is solid. but if your radar indicates otherwise, tend to check-call if solid and check-fold if not. and if your image isn't solid, but you feel as though a bet or check-call is ok, tend to fold but reserve the right to bet or call. those other factors must be fairly compelling in order for betting or calling to be correct. image and radar without a bias toward betting or calling or folding for reasons other than image and radar, is pretty much how you handle these.. i use the 'word' radar for tells, opponent hitches, or opponent knowledge, and the field; all of those things.

if everything is ok, you can bet that A as a scare card against 2 opponents, but it's better obviously against just one.

there is a lot of free-play allowed when conditions are right. the problem is knowing what makes it right to bet or check-call. and the answer is image and radar. that's how you beat this opponent. and of course, that's how you also stay out of less than marginal situations against this opponent.

[brad]

vulnerable hand = bet turn fold2raise, checkcall river

[Paluka]

People seem to think tight players are going to 3 bet this flop with AA, KK, QQ, JJ but I think a lot of players like to call the flop raise and raise the turn with an overpair. After he calls you on the flop I think you bet the turn. No hand you beat is going to call you, but you can't give him the free shot to buy the pot if you check. Bet the turn, fold if raised. If he calls you, pray for a free showdown. If I bet the turn and got called, I think calling a river bet is probably a losing play.

[mike l.]

"Bet the turn, fold if raised."

reason i didnt consider this was because if i just check-call the turn i am getting good implied odds if im on a 5 outer with 7 bbs in the pot when the turn starts. but i dont want to give a free card either. see my dilemma?

[mike l.]

"I hate advocating check/call then check/call, but it might be best"

wow that's exactly what i did and i felt like the biggest sucker. he had AKs.

[Diplomat]

What exactly are you worried about your opponent hitting on the river if it get's checked through, considering the action thus far?

-Diplomat

[Jezebel]

It would seem that this is a good example of betting the turn with a hand with no outs and folding to a raise. Check the turn with a hand with outs espcially if you have a history of checkraising the turn.