A hand

[JimmyV]

Yes, I do have blind faith in these numbers, but only because I can calculate confidence intervals in my head to three decimal places. My blindest faith is reserved for the 99% confidence interval; at 80% I just have a little glaucoma, no big whup.

Against these guys I was heavily astigmatic with a little neural damage.


JimmyV, EpiMagoo

[JimmyV]

[ QUOTE ]

Any guesses as to what opponent might have held?


[/ QUOTE ]

riKEET... riKEET.....



Let's have some predictions before I post the results.

JimmyV

An interesting hand. I usually hate playing interesting hands. Just fold preflop.

You are putting a ton of money into the pot with a mediocre hand. I understand that you're bluffing but I would need more than stats to make this play, even with high confidence in them.

As far as hand-reading, some people do cold-call 3 bets with KQs, KJs, KTs, QJs, QTs, AK, AQ, or TT. I wouldn't put any of them past this villian. Part of the reason I don't like this play is that you still don't know where he is after the turn 3 bet, which of course is why the read is difficult. He could have a K, QJ, or is just getting stubborn with a T. Most likely you are spewing hard.

BTW I don't want you at my table.

IronFly

PS Since you are soliciting hand reads I'm guessing villian made a pair of 7s on the river.

The numbers on the villian show that he is aggressive but still not aggressive enough to get involved with a hand like AJo in my opinion, ill admit its close, I would 3 bet AQo here and AJs here. With AJo, I would not want to dance with an opponent with those stats, especially if he plays decent post flop. As far as the flop, Its not bad to fire one time and see what happens. On the turn its time to give up once both opponents showed interest on this board. As far as the CO, Im pretty sure he has a King in his hand, But its always possible he cold called with ATs as many players do in this situation, either way I'm still convinced CO has a monster, which makes your 3 bet bluff play untimely. The time to 3 bet bluff is when you think your opponent is bluff raising himself or you think you can make him fold some of the hands he would raise with in that spot. But people dont fold monsters and thats what I think the CO has. I still admire you Jimmy for making this post. Most people who screwed up a hand like this would be too embarrassed to post it, and we all mess up from time to time.

[JimmyV]

Opponent called the river and turned over AK, and my second-nut no-pair hand was no good. In retrospect his play made perfect sense and mine made very little.

The little sense that it did make had to do with the small consolation that I think opponent will fold JJ, QQ, 99, and AQ to this play. He was intimidated enough to back down with top trips top kicker, but that doesn't mean I shouldn't have given up on the river.

Or the flop for that matter.


JV
Rowing Junior-Varsity Spew

[catlover]

Preflop, I think it is borderline whether or not you should play AQo in that spot. AJo is an easy fold.

As for the rest of the hand, you have to bluff like that sometimes, just don't do it too often.

I think you should have given up on your bluff on the river. If he called you that far, he's not folding now. It would be much better to check. If he bets, you now have to decide whether or not the odds that he is bluffing (with QJs for instance) warrant a call.