34K Guaranteed 20+2 Do you guys like my push here?

[talcum]

I think your only mistake was begging the dealer for a 3. She got pissed and pulled a 5 from the bottom of the deck on the river.

I guess the obvious question is what range of hands will call your push and with 6 players left how many times you will run into those hands, keeping in mind that you might not get another solid hand before someone will call you on any push because of your stack size.

If you do get called you are either a coin flip or behind a higher pair and my guess is that this hand is on the border of whether to push or fold. By my quick calculations there is about 1/3 chance that someone out of the 6 has a pair. Lets say for approximation, half of those pairs call so thats one out of 6. Also assume that AK, AQ, maybe KQ from a larger stack calls you so again by quick approximation another 15%. So say 30% of the time you will be called and win about 35-40% of those. Lets say, again for approximation you will win $60,000 when you get called and win (sometimes you will win you stack plus the blinds, sometimes you will be called by a smaller stack and just win that plus the blinds, sometimes you will be called by one of the blinds).

So you are -$15,000 30% of the time and + $12,000 70% of the time for +$3,900 overall. this is all very approximate of course (and I hope accurate) but it looks like you want to push especially since you said that moving up a few spots is not important to you.

[ QUOTE ]
I think your only mistake was begging the dealer for a 3. She got pissed and pulled a 5 from the bottom of the deck on the river.

I guess the obvious question is what range of hands will call your push and with 6 players left how many times you will run into those hands, keeping in mind that you might not get another solid hand before someone will call you on any push because of your stack size.

If you do get called you are either a coin flip or behind a higher pair and my guess is that this hand is on the border of whether to push or fold. By my quick calculations there is about 1/3 chance that someone out of the 6 has a pair. Lets say for approximation, half of those pairs call so thats one out of 6. Also assume that AK, AQ, maybe KQ from a larger stack calls you so again by quick approximation another 15%. So say 30% of the time you will be called and win about 35-40% of those. Lets say, again for approximation you will win $60,000 when you get called and win (sometimes you will win you stack plus the blinds, sometimes you will be called by a smaller stack and just win that plus the blinds, sometimes you will be called by one of the blinds).

So you are -$15,000 30% of the time and + $12,000 70% of the time for +$3,900 overall. this is all very approximate of course (and I hope accurate) but it looks like you want to push especially since you said that moving up a few spots is not important to you.

[/ QUOTE ]


In my mind, I was thinking that, this is a 7 handed table chance of running into another big pair isnt that great. There are 21 ppl left, most of the avg stacks are playing tight, trying to move up the money.

If I fold, I'll only have 5x BB left after posting and the chance of makeing the final table is slim.
If I win the blinds, I'll still have 7xBB left after posting and also i'll have more power to steal.
If I double up, I'll be in the final table for sure.

So I decided to push and pray.

[locutus2002]

Use the converter or explain the hand. this is a mess to look at and its wrong.

I can't tell what happened, but this is a good time for a Stop and Go.

[Tailgunner]

He open pushed UTG with 33 and got called by the tall (3.33X) stack who outkicked him with AKo when the board double paired.

[Bco1/75]

I have found repeatly typing the card you need into the chat box works. So if you typed:
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

You would have hit a 3..

Cheers,
Bco