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#1
08-26-2005, 12:47 AM
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Daily Hand - Folding TP to a LAP in the SB on the turn
The Villian here is seeing the flop %55 of the time and raises 0% of the time, after 75 hands. He is LAP. This hand came up and I just lost all my sense and didn't know where I was at. 6 handed game.
Hero is in CO with: Ks Qs Villian is the SB Preflop: EP puts up BB to come in, EP checks, MP folds, Hero raises, Button folds, Villian calls, BB calls, EP folds. Flop: Qc, 8d, 7d (7 SB) SB bets, BB folds, Hero raises, SB 3bets, Hero calls. Turn: 3h (7 BB) SB bets, Hero folds. Being that I haven't seen this guy raise once, I put him on a wide range of hands. The guy doesn't even raise with pocket pairs that are jacks or better. I gave him credit for every possible set and two pair combination on the board once I was 3bet on the flop. What do you think about the fold on the turn? Surely not knowing where my opponent is at is difficult. I have seen him merely call a raise on the flop before with two pair and I have also seen him raise occasionaly. What do you think of this hand that torments me? 
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#2
08-26-2005, 12:56 AM
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Re: Daily Hand - Folding TP to a LAP in the SB on the turn
Dont like it. Theres a ton of draws he could have or even a weaker Q. Also LAPs can get weird fits of aggression sometimes with complete garbage.
I would at least call him down.
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#3
08-26-2005, 02:27 AM
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Re: Daily Hand - Folding TP to a LAP in the SB on the turn
How often have you known a LAP to bet a draw? Sure he might be on this thing of aggression, but I would of stayed in if I honestly thought he was on a draw.
What about a play where I was to raise on the turn? I am sure I would be behind on the turn unless I made two pair, but it can help clarify if I am drawing dead or not. That silly logic?
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#4
08-26-2005, 02:47 AM
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Re: Daily Hand - Folding TP to a LAP in the SB on the turn
55 % hands seems to be any high card, suited, connected, any ace, king,
From the SB he is probably playing anything. A LAP seldom fools you with a bet, so he has two pair. you have a five- outer. LAP also raised the flop, if he bet out the turn he obvously likes his hand enough to call, and raise. I would call him on the turn, but raising can't be good at this point. siince you can't make him fold. So, unless you spike an A or Q on the river, your probably dead. If you really need to figure out what makes this donk play like this, it would be cheaper to call till the showdown, I would think that any high- card would scare him enough to check the river. I don't see this as a bad fold either, as long as you have a solid read on this guy.
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#5
08-26-2005, 11:32 AM
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Re: Daily Hand - Folding TP to a LAP in the SB on the turn
How often are we calling down to the river when a LAP 3bets us on the flop?
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#7
08-26-2005, 12:21 PM
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Re: Daily Hand - Folding TP to a LAP in the SB on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
The Villian here is seeing the flop %55 of the time and raises 0% of the time, after 75 hands. He is LAP. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Being that I haven't seen this guy raise once, I put him on a wide range of hands. The guy doesn't even raise with pocket pairs that are jacks or better. I gave him credit for every possible set and two pair combination on the board once I was 3bet on the flop. [/ QUOTE ] I've highlighted your false assumptions. 75 hands means poop I'm not sure how you put him on a "wide range hands" but them give him credit for monsters. *If* your behind two pair you have outs and odds to improve. If your behind a set, well hell that's poker, but if your making regular folds like this because you're giving credit to *possible* monsters you're going to end up leaving a lot of money on the table. Sarge[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
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#8
08-26-2005, 01:30 PM
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Re: Daily Hand - Folding TP to a LAP in the SB on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
What about a play where I was to raise on the turn? I am sure I would be behind on the turn unless I made two pair, but it can help clarify if I am drawing dead or not. That silly logic? [/ QUOTE ] Yes, very silly logic. If you're going to raise the turn, thus putting another bet in, you might as well call the turn and call the river. What does raising the turn accomplish? Letting you know where you are at? If he calls the turn raise and you don't improve on the river, you check the river and see the showdown for the same price as calling the turn and calling the river (+/-0 BBs). If he re-raises the turn raise, you fold to the reraise and don't get to see a showdown, yet it cost you the same amount as if you had called/called and seen a showdown (-2 BBs) OR you call the re-raise and then call the river bet and get beat by his set, thus putting in 2 extra bets to see the same showndown (-4 BBs). The other thing that might happen is he has 2 pair and you hit your 5 outer on the river and win the pot (+3 BBs). You have about a 1/9 chance of hitting 2 pair, and the number of times you hit 2 pair, you win say 35% of the time because of how aggressive Villian is (we put him on a set 65% of the time). That means you win 3 BBs 4% of the time and lose 2 to 4 BBs 96% of the time. A turn raise is a horrible idea. I would either have folded the flop 3-bet (if you had that strong of a read on him), or check-called it down the whole way.
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#9
08-26-2005, 01:50 PM
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Re: Daily Hand - Folding TP to a LAP in the SB on the turn
[ QUOTE ]
You have about a 1/9 chance of hitting 2 pair, [/ QUOTE ] If villian has 2 pair, hero has 8 outs (3Ks, 2Qs, and 3 hidden pair-the-board outs) so he's about 4.5-1 to improve. The turn is an easy call.
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