Is getting away ever an option

[alta_chuttes]

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When he raises preflop from that position, he's bound to have a pretty good hand given his 7% PFR. So a range might be something like AJ+, KTs+, 77+, and then occasionally he might be raising a JTs or even 44 here but usually his hand will be quite strong.

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I think this is an enourmously over-generous hand range, assuming the 7% pfr is accurate.

I'm really liking the bet and fold to a raise in terms of it being a reliable indicator of his hand's stregth, but 9-1 with an almost certain river check-raise when we improve is nice.



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MATHS:


7% is like 99+, ATs+, AJo+, KQs, and this is probably close to accurate becuase he is likely somewhat position sensitive and raises less from the blinds and UTG and more from the CO or Button.

If he raises the turn, there are 6 ways for him to have AA-QQ, 3 ways to have JJ, 2 ways to have ATs.

18 hands - 5 outs.

3 hands - 2 outs

2 hands - 3 outs.

(90 + 6 + 6)/23

102/23 = 4.4 average outs.

But I lose 2 bets when we catcha J v JJ (maybe 3 bets) and Ilose 2 bets (maybe 3 bets) when I catch a T v AT.

So call flop raise and donkbet/fold turn looks good.