Is this the kinda river I should be value betting?

Python49 · #1 08-26-2005, 01:08 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

BB ($56.20)
UTG ($99)
MP ($54)
Hero ($182.14)
SB ($146.56)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, MP calls $1, Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, UTG calls $3, MP folds.

Flop: ($10.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $10, UTG calls $10.

Turn: ($30.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $20, UTG calls $20.

River: ($70.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $70.50

Results in white below: 
UTG has Jh Ks (two pair, jacks and eights).
Hero has Ad Js (two pair, jacks and eights).
Outcome: Hero wins $70.50. 

On this river, I checked behind him in case his plan was to check raise me with a boat. Afterwards though I thought to myself.. why would he play his boat that way.. check call it down the whole way and then check the river. I convinced myself to check during that hand on the river because I thought "well a busted flush isnt calling here, and by betting I might just get raised". I didn't take into consideration a weaker jack, which WOULD call a value bet. Should I have?

-Skeme- · #2 08-26-2005, 01:16 PM

Yeah, I think any decent Jack is calling a decent bet here. I'd probably bet at least $30 or so. Maybe a little more so I'd feel better folding to his all in. I'm not a fan of betting small and getting raised.. always makes you think they're only raising because of your weakish bet.

Cardinal991 · #3 08-26-2005, 01:25 PM

I don't like a river bet here, but I can see how the case could be made. I may be more risk averse than some in here, but it seems the amount of money you're "leaving on the table" here is minimal. You're only getting calls from KJ, QJ, probably. In any case it's not worth the chance of getting a c/r on the river, which is small but not zero. Ya feel me?

Cardinal991 · #4 08-26-2005, 01:29 PM

... Another factor that makes me discount "weak J" money is he's been flat calling some significant bets. That's not how I would play JQ anyhow.

Raven · #5 08-26-2005, 01:36 PM

Someone who has convinced himself to call those two bets with KJ or QJ will not fold for 40 $ on the river. You may even get a call from a TT - 99, or even Ace high hand that talked himself you were betting a draw or that you are bluffing. It would help to know what kind of player he his. Another thing that would help is the frequency of your continuation bet and if you had been caught making a second barrel with AK before.

Against a tight player you might consider checking back on the turn. Also, an 8 is not a card that is very likely in a raised pot, and you would probably have heard of it before with the flush draw and straight draw out.

-Skeme- · #6 08-26-2005, 01:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That's not how I would play JQ anyhow.

[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of people suck at poker.

TheWorstPlayer · #7 08-26-2005, 01:42 PM

I think any bet commits you so either push or check. Unless you know the guy is an idiot, I check because he most likely just has a busted flush draw. If he had a better hand than yours, though, he must raise or bet somewhere with these shallowish stacks so I am pretty confident you are ahead. I think you get called very infrequently, though, and some idiots do slowplay to the extreme, so are you ahead 50% when you get called? Pretty close, IMO. As I said, if I think there's any chance he calls off the rest of his stack with a J, I push. If not, I check.

-Skeme- · #8 08-26-2005, 01:49 PM

Err, I thought this was $200. Yeah, probably not gonna fold if you do value bet this. This thread illustrates the huge importance of reads.

TheWorstPlayer · #9 08-26-2005, 01:57 PM

Here is a hand from yesterday that my friend played to demonstrate:

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) converter

UTG ($0)
MP ($221.65)
Friend of TWP ($654.80)
Button ($91.25)
SB ($114.40)
BB ($35.63)

Preflop: Friend of TWP is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, Friend of TWP calls $1, Button calls $1, SB (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($4) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets $3, BB folds, Friend of TWP calls $3, Button folds.

Turn: ($10) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $6, Friend of TWP raises to $20, SB calls $14.

River: ($50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, at this point I was saying to him "PUSH IT ALL IN!!!" and he's going "no, I should bet 20 or so" and I'm like "NO!!! PUSH IT ALL IN!!!! ALL OF IT!!! PUSH IT IN!!!" and he's like "He's not going to call!" and I'm like "YES HE IS!!! PUSH IT IN!!!!", Friend of TWP calls $630.80 (All-In), SB calls $90.40 (All-In).

Final Pot: $771.20

Results in white below: 
SB has Qs Jc (one pair, queens).
Friend of TWP has Jh 9h (straight, queen high).
Outcome: Friend of TWP wins $771.20. 

You just have to have your reads of the biggest donks.